Sunday, August 23, 2015

How's Your Dong? Your Tenge?

      More fallout from the slide in stock prices last week.  Vietnam's dong was devalued yesterday, giving up a % of value.  In Kazakhstan, the tenge currency was allowed to float on markets and promptly lost 25% of its value.  In China, the elephant in the economic room, the renminbi, is hovering about a slight devaluation of almost 3%.  Not much you say, but, the whole world is watching and waiting, as this major world economy(market) is sending shock waves throughout the world.
      When markets open tomorrow morning, traders will be holding their collective breaths.  Many anticipate further price declines across the world.  The price of oil will be closely monitored.  If oil prices slip into the $30/ barrel range, look out for an acceleration of stock price declines.  Not to worry: these "corrections" were anticipated by many institutions and many market watchers had hoped this drop in valuations happened before the 4th quarter begins.
      International tensions in certain areas also contribute to market uncertainty.  The Koreas are again thrashing each other, posturing and yelling.  The Iranians are gearing up their oil industry in anticipation of getting their domestic oil back to the world market.  Saudi Arabia is pumping more of their oil, hoping to drive small producers out of the business.  Israel is debating spending billions on their domestic natural gas field, hoping to become more energy independent.  Pakistan is cozying up to Russya, getting a feel for a relationship with the northern bear that will include a pipeline that will carry oil /gas to Pakistan.
      Not to be outdone, the state of Utah is preparing to tap into its tar sand deposits, hoping extraction of this oil source will provide significant revenue for state coffers.  Oil price declines will not bode well for these efforts.
      We'll be back in the morning as the NYSE opens.

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