Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Russyan Foreign Minister Speaks With Forked Tongue

    Sergey V. Lavrov, house puppet of the Kremlin, spoke out  in a statement yesterday that framed the future of Russya's foreign affairs.  "There will be no 'business as usual' anymore, when the U.S. and the European Union tried  to impose agreements on us that were most of all in their interest, and tried to persuade us that it will not damage our interests,"  Mr. Lapdog said.  " This story is over".
     Here is another example of the double life of the Russyan citizen.   He must profess one thing while believing the complete opposite,  speaking with forked tongue.   In addition, he had to ignore information from Amnesty International in December that stated that Russyan bombers had killed hundreds of civilians in Syria in airstrikes.  Mr.  Lapdog had denied that Russyans had targeted civilians.   Mr. Lapdog also stated that Crimea, which was seized by Russya in 2014, is not negotiable.  "Crimea is Russyan territory,"  he said.
     This comes from a representative of a country, the largest in the world, that hovers on the brink of a full fledged depression.   As its energy sector, which supplies its largest amount of sovereign income, suffers as oil and gas prices continue to slide below $30/barrel,  citizens are becoming ever more restive as their incomes and buying power shrinks as never before.
     What now, Mr. Putin?
note:
Speaking with forked tongue = lying in speech.  Symbolized by two fingers pointing to mouth then away.  Native American gesture, Tribes of Great Plains and Southwest US-Sioux, Mandan, Apache, Kiowa, Omaha, Crow, and Blackfoot.

Monday, January 25, 2016

South Lake Tahoe Scam Alert

     To All Tahoma residents:
      Diamond  Resorts International, owners of the Tahoe Beach and Ski Club in South Lake, have been exposed this Sunday by NY Times finance writer/author Gretchen Morgenson.  The "resort" is a time share establishment that markets timeshares to unsuspecting buyers who fall victims to the lies and hardsell tactics that take advantage of the ignorance of potential customers.
    Her long article in the Sunday business section gives exact details of what has happened to owners who are forced to pay  exorbitant, ever-increasing fees for maintenance, operations, and future upgrades.  The company, run by a slick operator,  Stephen J. Cloobeck, has seen its company's shares drop by 37 % since last March.  In the article, she shares details of one customer's nightmare as the she was harangued by sales representatives for 5 hours before they "released" her.  They had already billed her credit card $4, 495. which they were smart enough to negate as she left.  The 77- year old woman was in shock after the experience.
     Word to the wise: avoid all timeshare deals like the plague.  They are a loser's game.  Nobody wins here but the house.  Who like those odds?  Nobody, but the house.  In this case- Diamond Resorts International, run by Stephen J. Cloobeck.   And he plays golf with Obama!

Warriors v. The San Antonio Spurs

     It was the 1st meeting of the two teams this season.  They were playing at home where the warriors have not lost this season.  The Spurs are the best defensive team in the league and have given up only 89 points per game or less.
    FINAL: Golden State Warriors 120- San Antonio 90.   MVP Curry sat during the 4th qtr.  He had 37 points by the end of the 3rd.  He had a good night, as did Draymond Green, Clay Thompson, and a few others.
     They are fun to watch and all basketball fans are being treated to the golden years  of a Golden State WARRIOR.  Stephen Curry .

Saudi Royal Family: a Gift Giving

      The attorney general said that no criminal action was involved in the "donation" from the Royal Family of Saudi Arabia to the personal bank account of Malaysian Prime Minister Razak.  It was announced Tuesday(26th) in Kuala Lumpur that the Saudi gesture was a good will move between countries.  The amount:  $681,000,000.00.  Yes, it is equal to the cash amount of a recent lottery prize.  The question:  Will there be a tax consequence when the PM files his income tax return?
      The other question:  how can the House of Saud, in the face of a huge deficit at home, send this amount as a gift to another individual?  Hmmmm.  Tooooooooooooooo much money.  Ya think?????
Gotta love those dictators: they know how to spend.

Edward Gibbon: English Historian

       It was scarcely possible that the eyes of contemporaries should discover in the public felicity the latent causes of decay and corruption.  This long peace, and the uniform government of the Romans,introduced a slow and secret poison into the vitals of the empire.  The minds of men were gradually reduced to the same level, the fire of genius was extinguished, and even military spirit evaporated.
  ..... Their personal valour remained, but they no longer possessed that public courage which is nourished by the love of independence, the sense of national honor, the presence of danger, and the habit of command.  They received laws and governors from the will of their sovereign, and trusted for their defense to a mercenary army.  The posterity of their boldest leaders was contented with the rank of citizens and subjects.  The most aspiring spirits resorted to the court or standard of the emperors; and the deserted provinces, deprived of political strength or union, insensibly sunk into the languid indifference of private life.
     From" The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire".  Published in 6 volumes, 1776-1788.  London.

Saturday, January 23, 2016

Minister of Manufacturing Update

Project Site:Excavation in Progress
    Our Minister of Manufacturing  sent a nice foto of a project in SoCal that has gotten off the ground.  In reality, the project has gotten into the ground.  The 2 year project is off the drawing boards and into "work".  Good news for California's labor force.   This will mean at least 100 permanent jobs after completion.   Hundreds during construction in addition to ancillary employment surrounding the local effort.

Rouble Slides to New Lows v. Dollar

      The head of the Russyan national bank said this week that the slide of the rouble was being watched, but is not a cause for concern.  Ya, sure.  Now, it seems, things are a bit different.  The rouble ripped through 80 to the $, then settled back down to 78.  The Kremlin was all shudders and shakes, given that the national budget was based on 50 roubles to the $.  Tsk, tsk.
      Main point for the international community to remember when dealing with Putin, the Kremlin, and Russyans in general: Do Not Under Any Circumstances Take Tea With Them.
     After the publication of British Judge Robert Wren's report on the Litvinenko murder with Polonium 210-laced tea, enough said.   There was so much polonium left in his corpse after he died 3 weeks after tea with the Kremlin-directed murderers, he had to be buried in a lead-lined casket.   Thanks to his widow's persistence and the late efforts of David Cameron, the truth of the murder-for-hire in a foreign nation has finally received the worldwide press exposure necessary to alert international groups to the reality of Mr. Putin's geopolitical ambitions that rest upon his consolidation of power at home.
      The price of oil, beyond control of even the largest producer, Saudi Arabia, has caused a major headache for the largest country in the world.  Without the foreign exchange funds generated by energy sales abroad, the national economy in Russya will continue to stagnate.   Little can be done at home because businesses refuse to go along with the Kremlin's role as partners-in-chief of your business.  In other words, if you have a successful business, the kremlin will step in and take at least half, if not all.   In other words, serfdom.
      Concurrently, Iranian oil is returning to the market.   The first tanker load of Iranian oil is scheduled to arrive in Europe this week, and others are being positioned for loading and transport.   Look for the price to find $20/barrel this week.  A week uptick Friday in stock prices didn't do much to restore anything resembling confidence in markets.  The ECB announced a new stimulus.  The FED is expected to remain cautious about inflation/deflation.   The dollar continues its ride to the top as China lets the yuan find its level.
     Tahomans: go skiing this weekend-lots of powder, small crowds.  Wheeeeeeeeeeee.

Friday, January 22, 2016

Buddhist in Sacramento

       Governor Jerry Brown gave his State of the State speech yesterday to the combines houses of the legislature: the Assembly and the Senate.  In 20 minutes or so, the old geezer and Buddhism practitioner outlined what has happened lately, what has been done by him, and a few nuggets about the future.  get ready for more spending, more tax increases, and lower quality of life.  He mentioned a few salient steps he has taken to provide financial stability in California: 1)  provide for a "rainy day fund", the name given to taxes above and beyond the fiscal needs of the state.  These funds are to be squirreled away against a recession period when regular state taxes are insufficient to cover promised funding for programs that are ongoing.  This type of concept, provision for building surplus moneys to protect fiscal reliability, is not new.  The problem is, when the inevitable retrenchment occurs, the funds are nowhere to be found.  Somehow, they get spent during the expansion phase.
      But, Jerry Brown did not mention surplus funds, "rainy day" fund sounds better and is more acceptable to the voters/taxpayers.   It's a cute phrase going back to Jerry's childhood, when his Dad, Gov. Pat Brown, would tell Little Jerry to put the money he received from the Tooth Fairy in his piggybank and to save it for a "rainy day" when he would want to spend a little $$$ to take away the "rainy day" blues.
      The Gov talked about water, agriculture, and that 13+ millions have signed up for California's Medical program.  Hmmm.  That's about 1/3 of the population.  What are you saying here, Jerry?  That a large sector of the population cannot afford to live in California?   Then he said he's raised the minimum wage here, above the national rate.  Hmmmm?   Why is it so expensive to live here, anyway?   State income taxes?  State fees?  State property taxes?  Gasoline taxes?  How about SALES taxes?   Almost the highest anywhere, anytime.  Environmental costs?  Fee for every bucket of paint sold.  fee for every piece of lumber sold in the state.  Waste fee for tire disposal.  Fee to support green energy programs without any proven results.
      Jerry didn't mention the Cross Delta Tunnels; nor did he mention the High Speed Railway nightmare the State is ready to dump on the citizenry.
     Oh, well.  On the upbeat, he mention he's leaving Sacramento for good in 3 years.  Maybe he and Ann(wife) will retire to the shed on the family ranch near Williams, CA.

The Lotto Jackpot

     Last week the super Lotto grand prize reached 1.65 Billion dollars.  The states that offered the tickets were raking in the money faster than people could buy tickets.  The odds were published and repeated often: 1-292, 000,000+.  So, in essence, a ticket holder has a better chance of being elected president of the US than winning the lotto.  The net result:  1.65 billions of dollars removed from the economic market place.   This is the boon of state governments looking for an easy way to dupe the populous.  Offer a sneeky prize that  taps into the dreams and fantasies of those hapless, hopeless, boobs who think that this is money well spent: a chance at the stuff of dreams: a life w/o a care in the financial world.  No more worries about monthly rent, bills, education, healthcare. 
     Not too many years ago, the gambling of family funds was found to be detrimental to family life and individual responsibility.  However, politicians, in their infinite wisdom, decided replenishment of government funds trumped ethics and morality.  Now we have state-sponsored lotteries across the fruited plain.  Most recently, the basic lotto structure was altered to DECREASE the chances of winning, thereby creating a larger jackpot that would attract more players(read more losers) and more TAX in the state budgets.
     Wheeeeee: free money to fund salaries of already bloated government budgets(see Transparent California for actual numbers-good reading here).

Board Games in Saudi Arabia

     We know enough about Saudi Arabia now, and its probably more than we want to know.  They, the kingdom, citizens, royal family, etc., practice a form of Islam that is more strict than most other forms.  All the restraints are followed exactly, and followers are expected to toe the mark.  So, we have a recent statement by the top cleric that a traditional past time should be banned because it is the game of satan, wastes time better spent praying, and is a corrupting influence on the young.  We are not talking of TV, video games, iphones, American movies, or booze and drugs: we are talking CHESS !  Yes, that board game that has existed for millennia, is practiced/played globally, and enjoyed by millions.
      So, this Fatwa, or religious edict, explains some of the problems in dealing with a culture that is really a theocracy disguised as a relevant, modern society worthy of respect and due consideration.   Hmmm.  Maybe Donald Trump could offer a few tips on modernization.  Maybe Bernie Sanders could do the same.   Could King Salman respond in a suitable manner to explain to the cleric that he's crazy?  Probably not.
     Look at the photos of the Saudi chess set:  see the king's crown?  No cross here, but there is a star and crescent moon, symbol of Islam.  How significant is that?  Ask the cleric.

Russya Reeling As Rouble Crashes

     The Kremlin's money managers reacted gently to the dive in the value of the largest country in the world's currency.  The beleaguered rouble has seen its value halved in the last 2 weeks.  This will certainly cause ripples of despair across the Steppes and in Siberia.  Since Russya leans heavily on energy as a source of income and to support sovereign wealth, the global glut and price decline will certainly put Russya into depression-type economic conditions.
      Pensions in Russya will take a big hit, given they reflect the value in the rouble.  It follows that less income among that key group will flow in diminished amounts to the sectors reliant on consumer spending.  And then, we have Mr. Putin and his most recent troubles.
      British judge Wren released his report on the murder of Alexander Litvinenko on Thursday, citing the obvious involvement of 2 Russyan agents, the head of the FSB Intelligence Service, and the Kremlin in the person of Vladimir Putin.  Prime Minister David Cameron says that actions to consider concerning the disposition of charges against Russya will be fully examined, and could include further sanctions on top of those already imposed as a reult of Russyan takeovers in Crimea and Ukraine.
      Mr. Putin wants to play rough; get ready for some international rough and tumble as the largest country in the world takes it on the chin.   It seems only right that banking moves deserve the first consideration.  All the rest of the legal, political, military moves have no practical result.  However, the financial restraints have immediate and far reaching effects.  Without connection to international funds and banking support, the national economy is severely restrained and growth essentially ceases in all sectors of the economy.
     Welcome, Vladimir, to globalization alla 2016.

Oil Less Expensive

      Well, children, it seems the price of a barrel of oil will not firm up.  The price looks for a new low, somewhere south of $30/barrel.  This is a cause of concern for: 1) drivers-No, 2) taxi cabs- No, 3) drones- No, 4) Saudi Arabia-No-got plenty, 5) Japan-No, they like cheap oil, 6) America-No, we'll keep on pumping, thank you, 7) Russya- Yikes, our poor rouble @90+/dollar, 10) Venezuela-  bring back Hugo Chavez, he'll fix it and nationalize foreign oil companies(Oh, sorry, already done that), 11) Brazil- horrors, economy could go into a depression just as we start the Olympics, Dilma, 12) Iran- oil-smoil, we don't care the $/barrel now that the Great Satan has lifted sanctions,13) Iraq- what oil?, 14) China- we'll let the floating yuan take care of it.
       That's our round up of the oil price decline worldwide.  Western Europe should benefit across the board as their energy needs can be used more effectively at lower prices.  The price decline would also provide a stimulus along with Mario Draghi's plan to provide more economic stimulus in the Euro zone, especially in light of refugees flooding to the continent from Syria, North Africa, and the Middle East.

Thursday, January 21, 2016

Putin Gets Ripped by Brits

      Mr. Putin, president/premier/czar of the largest country in the world, has been named as the ultimate decision maker of the assassination of a former Russyan spy in the heart of London.  The ten year -old case has been the subject of a thorough investigation by the British government in an attempt to find out who gave the order and approval to carry out the extrajudicial killing on foreign soil.  The victim, Alexander Litvinenko, died 3 weeks after having tea with Dmitry Kovtun and Andrey Lugovoy in a London hotel.  The poison found later in the teapot was polonium-90, a highly radioactive isotope, only available at a high state institution that has to be government funded.   The two FSB (Russyan security service) operatives left London and returned to the largest country in the world where their close friend and spy master Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin resides in the Kremlin.  The British government asked Ruusya to extradite the 2 murderers, but the Rusyans remain free at home.  One is a current sitting member of the Russyan parliament, a corrupt body of climbers, boot lickers, scalawags, yes-men, liars, self promoters, Putinistas, former party hacks in the old Soviet system, ex- commies, rigid thinkers, apparatchiks, and narrow-minded blow hards.
      This report, put together under the supervision of retired Judge Robert Owen, will have far reaching consequences for Russya, Great Britain, and all of the West.  This must be seen for what it is: an attempt by the little horseback riding, leopard-stroking, narcissistic former KGB office clerk whose springboard to the kremlin began as the deputy mayor of St. Petersburg on the Baltic Sea.  It was there, during his tenure as deputy mayor, he perfected the tools needed to power his way to the top of the Kremlin's dung heap.
      Litvinenko's widow, Marina, and his son, will now speak out more forcefully about the murderous reach of the Russyan government, violating international laws, and denying all involvement in a conspiracy to eliminate all opposition to the rule of Vladimir (Vova) Putin.

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Snow Update: January 19

     Looks like we'll be getting anywhere from 3"-6" today on Highway 89.  Homewood Resort will be great tomorrow and Thursday, and friday could be a good one, too.  Another 6" could accumulate by Friday night.  Get those powder skiis waxed up and ready.   Slick the bottom of the Burton Board, goggles, helmet, and pay attention to avalanche warnings, especially if you go off trail.  That tactic is definitely not recommended.  Powder accumulation has hidden hazards for the unwary when off groomed runs.
    Looks like a real winter continues in the Sierra.

Monday, January 18, 2016

Dr. Paul McHugh, Johns Hopkins University, Comments

      Last week, Dr. McHugh wrote a piece on the events of student disturbances at a few American Universities, including that icon of the Ivy League, Yale University.  This follows the incidents related to comments made by a professor at Yale who differed on a policy statement issued by the University that Halloween costumes should be selected with sensitivities of other students in mind.  To wit, costumes should not be insulting or disrespectful of others in the campus community.  Shortly after the professor's response, her husband, another professor on campus, was treated to an ungly incident as he walked on campus.  Surrounded by a group of students, he was berated and harassed for "what his wife said".  That's right, he was harassed for what his wife said.  Hmmmm.  Seems like Yalies are a sensitive bunch.  Was it like that when John Kerry was on campus?
     Both professors have not returned to campus this spring.  Would you? The little snot-nosed privileged brats don't deserve to be the beneficiaries of the professors' renown or their expertise.  I'm sure if they walked, that would be the best message they could send to the student body.

1968 Olympic Star Passes

Leonid Zhabotinsky at Olympics
        Who carried the flag for the Soviet Union in Mexico at the opening ceremony of the 1968 Olympic Games?   He carried the large flag and pole in 1 hand, something few could even attempt.
Clue:  he was a weight lifter.
  Answer:
     Leonid Zhabotinsky aka "Big Zhabo", died of heart-related ailments.  He was 77 years old.  The son of a Cossack, he was born in Ukraine in 1938, just before WW II.  He soon followed his father into the forests to become an apprentice woodsman.  Soon, in high school, he became a shot putter.  Shortly thereafter, he took up weightlifting, and launched a stellar career that went far beyond his native Ukraine.
     After winning local competitions, he graduated to the upper class levels on the national stage.  Soon, he was eligible for the Soviet National team and went to the 1964 Tokyo Olympiad Summer Games, where he won his first gold medal.  In 1968, he went to Mexico City for the Summer Olympiad at the height of the Vietnam War.  There, he won his second Olympic gold medal.  It was here that he made a splash during the opening ceremonies by holding the Soviet flag on its 40 lb. pole aloft with only 1 hand. All other flag bearers needed two hands.   He set 19 world records until his retirement.  He failed to get another gold medal at the Munich Games in 1972.  He worked as an instructor at various academic institutes while training athletes for the Army team.  His 2 sons, Ruslon and Vilen are both weightlifters.

Bernie and Hillary Debate

      PUTIN CALLED BULLY:                                                                                                                        Here we are, less than two weeks from the first round of primary voting for 2016.  Last night, the democratic debate was televised with Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and token Martin O'Malley.   It was rather a benign debate, with none of the candidates making significant points.  The best statement came from Hillary when asked by host "What is your relationship with Vladimir Putin?"  Her response, "He is a bully, and one must always expect aggressive behavior from all bullies like Mr. Putin.  So, if the dear girl is elected to run the USA in November, and she succeeds The Deporter in Chief, then Vladimir Putin can expect Hillary to deal with him as she deals with all bullies: slap them down and don't take any crap from these thugs!
      American politics are lame compared to much of the rest of the world.  Candidates are always watchful of what is said.  Cell phone cameras and recorders are everywhere and everything is fair game.  Hence, true opinions rarely make it into the discussion.  And, as time moves on, so does the position of a candidate.  The Republicans are careful to stay abreast of polling data, and can be relied upon to go whatever way the wind blows.

Sunday, January 17, 2016

Wave of Black Gold Starts to Break

      Mark today as the first day of Iran's comeback as a member of the global oil cartel.  Not many folks are overly concerned, unless of course, you are Russya, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Yemen, U.A.E., and Brazil.  The world is awash in oil, and there's precious little space to store the surplus.  Our friends in China who share a long, long border with the LARGEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD(russya), apparently have no need for the world's surplus black gold.  In fact, they plan to use less.  The price per barrel slid under the benchmark $30./barrel on Friday and one could expect the slide to continue as Iran's oil hits markets tomorrow.
     Now, the amount available is somewhere between 800K and 3.5 million barrels a day.  The currency-starved Iranian economy will take some time to get back its regular footing, but, the aging Ayatollah is more concerned with fighting his own demons than the national balance of payments.  His oil ministers hope the old goat stays out of the way as they hope to integrate the nation's production back into world markets.  Europe could be an immediate beneficiary with Iran's price point on entry: perhaps as low as $22/barrel.  Yes, Saudis are not worried about price points as they continue to pump at all costs as they scratch out market share to get the economy out of the red(Good luck, King Salman).
     Journalist Jason Rezaiin is in Switzerland where he was taken after being freed in a prisoner exchange.  He is ecstatic to be rid of the Iranian Theocratic-Ruled Nut House known as the Iranian legal system which is really extra-legal and largely illegal.  But our focus is economics and oil.
    So, the breaking wave will wash across the Middle East landscape, reducing national budgets and aggravate a situation pummeled by war, civil and otherwise.  Mr. Putin, take note:  you don't have enough oil to break into this cat fight among Arab oil producers.  Take some advice:  talk with China's Xi and make peace along your southern border; that's where your future lays.

Stocks Take Hit Around World

      Friday's stock markets took a bath yesterday.  Economic news that forecast a broad retreat had traders in a serious sell state of mind.  S&P 500 slid 8%;  Dow Jones slid 8.2%; Stoxx Europe 600- 9.8%; Shanghai Comp. -18%; and the topper-NY crude-oil futures -20.6%.  Investors were grabbing bonds, sending yields below 2%  for the first time since October.   WalMart announced it will be closing over 200 stores as buyers become more infatuated with internet shopping.
     Analysts call the down trend a correction as the market has retreated over 10% since November.  Some positive information was widely disregarded.  For example, Citigroup reported its largest profit in 10 years, and its stock price fell 6.4% on Friday.  Too bad for you, Citigroup, after profiting on the backs of retail customers.
     Crude oil prices went south of $30. to $29.42/barrel, its lowest price in 12 years.   How about that!
To confirm many investors suspicions, index mutual funds have seen a surge in money that has come into the index funds from managed stock funds.   Consumers across the US are holding cash, spending less, indicating a nervousness about the future of a slow-growing US economy.

Mayor Interviewed by Grad Students

      The Mayor was interviewed yesterday by a group of grad students from Hult International Grad School.  They were interested in speaking with men/women who had diverse backgrounds and the goal was to assess sentiments regarding the use of time outside of the workplace.  This was in an effort to identify quality of life issues post career and /or multi-career paths.
     The 3 students, 20-somethings were from Latin America: 2 from Brazil and 1 from Mexico.  They were pursuing MBA's in San Francisco at the urban campus located near Telegraph Hill in the City's NE quadrant.  In short, they wanted to know what the Mayor did, what the Mayor was doing(and his friend, Tom), and what is the future looking like.
     They were all enthusiastic and excited to have discovered a couple of locals who were willing to submit to an impromptu interview.   While the coffee cooled in the cups, the local duo responded to their questions with candid clarity and humor much to the satisfaction of the three.
     The Mayor's own questions were answered in like kind:  Brazil is a troubled country brought to the economic brink by corruption at the highest levels, but Brazil is a beautiful country with beautiful people who love their country.  Mexico and its citizens have similar sentiments.
     In all, a most rewarding exchange of international, border crossing thoughts and ideas.  Felipe, Zander, and Miguel came across as intelligent, accomplished, inquisitive, thoughtful representatives of their country's people and their future.  No photographs were taken that could have accentuated the interview.  Fortunately, the iphone blitz was not a factor.

Saturday, January 16, 2016

Iran Frees Reporter

      Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian, an American newspaper reporter who was arrested over a year ago and held incommunicado in prison, was released from captivity by the Iranian Ayatollah and his minions today.  Tomorrow marks the end of economic sanctions imposed against Iran because of their repeated violations of International Arms agreements.  The agreement signed last year by 6 nations allowed the lifting of sanctions after complying with terms of the agreement which included eliminating nuclear fuel development and most of the enriched fuels in their stockpiles.
     Mr. Rezaiin was united with his Mother and wife and was found to be in good condition, a remarkable feat given Iran's history of prisoner abuses.  His trial, where he was convicted of phony charges, caused an international outrage.  However, the Ayatollah was unresponsive to diplomatic requests for his release.
      Billions of dollars, held in overseas accounts frozen by sanction, will be released to Iran this coming week.  This will help restore some elements of economic growth in that country but will hardly stem the international criminality  of this rogue state that has embarked on a mission to disrupt world laws and order.
     Security officials will be looking closely at all Iranian activities outside of its borders.  As they should because this theocracy is run by madmen.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Propane Price Decline

      Propane, the ubiquitous fuel that can be found just about anywhere, has been one of those fuels that slips under the energy market radar when everybody is talking about crude oil.  Crude price per barrel continues to slide south as oil producers ignore the glut and keep on pumping.  Propane is a refined product that is delivered to many rural customers throughout the USA.  Even urban home owners use propane for their grilling operations on the deck and in backyards.   So, when the price drops as it has recently, homeowners take note.
     As of today, the retail price for a gallon of liquid propane is $0.335/gallon.  So, how much are you paying, Bunky, for your supplier to deliver to your tank a 2-3 months supply?  How much?  $3.50/gal?  $3.00/gal?  Less?   Hmmmm.
     It's time to shop around again, bargain with the in house sales force, rejecting their 1st offer.  Yes, it's winter, but the hell with that.  The real market sets the price.  Negotiate downward.
Be bold.  Be warm.  Stock up, fill the tank.
Update
      Friday's market took a sharp decline across the board.  Propane prices dropped 10% to $0.30/gal.
That price is lower than it has been in years.  Buy now, but negotiate.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Homeland Security Interview

      Well the Mayor needed to update his traveler status to expedite passage when going through Customs and Immigration at a US Port of Entry.  Given that the heightened security everywhere requires border control officials to be extra vigilant, it make sense to take advantage of the Global Entry Program.  Above is one of the brochures given to applicants after completing the interview.  I drove to SFO for the interview after getting on the calendar 2 months ago.
     Conducted in the International terminal, the interview IFO  a Customs Officer who pulled up the docs on her terminal and commenced with a few questions to see if the Mayor is really the mayor.  I answered correctly, and was fully enrolled by the time I returned home.  The ID card will follow in the mail w/i 30 days.   So, after visiting our Minister in Latin America this Spring, our return should be easy and without any delays at the port of entry.
     As an added bonus, we decided to go to dinner in North Beach, actually Russian Hill, the old family stomping grounds, so well known to the Mayor, his sibs, and various relatives.  The resto, on the corner of Hyde and Union, is called Zarzuela. Yes, the cuisine is Spanish and the small site refuses reservations.  After 22 years in business, no doubt the owners don't have to take any, relying on word of mouth, social media, and of course, Yelp.
      Tapas are big here.  Small plates are big.  Rioja is big.   And the walls hold posters of famous bull fighters and bull rings from Spain.  We feasted on grilled octopus, oxtail stew, caracolles on toast, dates wrapped with Serrano ham, and, at the end, flan.  Very enjoyable meal.  The solution to no reservations: get there early to get a table.   Finding parking: a challenge-get there early during the transition from daytimers to local residents.
Food: 4+**** Ambiance: 3+*** Value: $$

Movie Review: "The Big Short"

       Remember the dark days of 2008?  Remember when the President, George Bush, came on TV and said things are bad but we'll fix it?   Remember when banks, the biggest banks, were bailed out with our tax dollars?  Remember the financial crisis and folks were losing their homes?  And nobody could figure out how it all happened?
      All, or almost all the answers are in this movie, adapted from the book by author Michael Lewis, the prolific author of 33 titles, many concerned with financial subjects.  Michael Lewis is the perfect writer to put the story in a format that is appealing while at the same time being accurate and compelling.  The big screen version explains the Wall Street situation with a straight forward approach that includes visual asides with actors explaining the mechanics of financial instruments used by the banks to hoodwink investors, even the most sophisticated of the bunch.  Sadly, it includes the awful climate of the banking business that went on without the scrutiny of the regulators who were no match for the fast-paced game being played out by veteran bankers.
       The film has an all-star cast featuring Brad Pitt, Ryan Gosling, Steve Carell, and Christian Bale.  The film focuses on the activities of a few small time players in finance who were able to take the time to investigate mortgage -backed securities and then identify them as the Achilles Heel of the whole financial world at that time.   The aftermath of the crash and the Great recession don't get much time as that is still being played out, even as President Obama begins his final year in office, managing a remarkable financial turn around in the USA, still the world's leader in economic stability and growth prospects.
     Don't miss the film, and read the book, too.
Mayor's rating: 5 stars*****-worth every penny

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Moskova in Winter: The "No Pants Subway Ride"

       Budget cuts in Russya?  Here's the response:  assorted individuals arranged to meet and ride the subway in Moskova without their pants on.  They all wore some sort of underpants/panties as the case may be.  This was the 15th year of the january event, held in other cities around Europe, but a first in Moskova.  Authorities threatened these "no pants" people with 15 days of jail time.  However, they would have to find somebody who disapproved of the behavior, ie, felt incited by the appearance of uncovered flesh.
      RBTH(rbth.com) the international propaganda sheet of the kremlinistas, hosted a raft of cell photos on its web site to titillate a few Siberians who might have internet connections.  I doubt as this would work if you saw the photos.  The only good one was that with the African doing a few stunt moves in the subway platform with 6 onlookers.
      No doubt, this winter is like all the rest in Russya and the cause of much vodka consumption, despair, and paranoia, and isolationist thinking.  Hmmmm.  Just perfect for a dude like Vova to control.   Where's Pussyriot when you need them?

Winter Weather Advisory Homewood

       Well, it is winter time.  So we have some snow about to descend on the West Shore.  Stock up unless you want to go shopping with reduced visibility, snow-covered Highway 89, and generally, difficult road conditions-for the next 5 days.  The advisory begins tonight and extends for 12 hours but the forecast is for snow for the near term.
     Pay attention, go skiing.

Message to Putin:2016

       Tonight, President Obama will give his last SOTU speech.  It will not be melancholy, but forward looking with but a slight nod to the past.  This will contrast with Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin's next speech which will be a spinning diatribe against the West, the Middle East and his southern neighbor, China.  He'll point fingers at all of them as the architects behind his country's slide into a deep recession, causing grief across the Steppes, the Urals, and the Pacific Coast.   No longer will the oligarchs, his closest allies, be able to hide out in London, Zurich, New York, and Madrid.   They'll have to stay in Moscova where Vova will chastise them because the rouble has fallen on hard times.
       The price of oil hit a 12 year low yesterday and the outlook is for more declines.  This puts pressure on the little imperialist who thought invading Crimea was a good thing, ala Mussolini.  Now the Crimeans pay for this by not having enough electricity(about 2/3's of their needs on a given day).  Perhaps the Ukrainians will help.  Oh, sorry, they blew up the transmission lines!
      Saudi Arabia keeps on pumping.  US oil companies, burdened with 342 billions in debt, keep on pumping.  Everybody keeps pumping, even Russya.  Net result: lower prices coming.  China retracts, her economy slides.  Hmmmmm.
      Maybe the Kremlin will alter course.  No, they are Russyan; they don't know how to change course.  (See Crimea).
     So, the message to Putin in these early days of 2016: get Ready!
Happy New Year

Monday, January 11, 2016

Movie Review: Spotlight

      One of 2015's major film releases continues to draw crowds and comments.  This film came as the result of a series of articles published in the City of Boston's daily, The Boston Globe.  The "spotlight" is an investigative column published with the goal of focusing the efforts of a news team of reporters who dissect an issue and publish their findings.  It's a great concept, often used in many forms, both locally and nationally.  The story does not lend itself to easily consumed facts with accompanying photos of locations, participants, and citizens affected.  This story involved the hierarchy of one of Boston's most cherished cultural pillars: the Catholic Church.
       Ever since Watergate, the role of investigative reporters has been widely recognized and appreciated.  Here in Boston, there was no exception.  The story involved the cover up of child abuse and pedophilia by members of the Catholic clergy who lived and worked in and around Boston.  The victims were often silenced by well paid lawyers working for the Church leaders, in this case,  Bernard Cardinal Law, Archbishop of Boston for many years.  Most of the victims were children, boys and girls of various ages, well under 18.  Often, there were several victims in one family.
      When the story was finally published in 2002, the scandal shocked the Boston public.  It shamed them, and shamed their Churches and their membership.  For decades, the cover up was allowed to continue, despite knowledge by officials who preferred to look the other way while children continued to be molested and raped.
      At the end of the published series, cover ups were identified in most major American cities, and almost as many abroad.   Hundreds of millions of dollars were paid to victims, and many local diocese went bankrupt to protect assets.  Bernard Cardinal Law fled Boston for the Vatican where he resides today, out of the reach of US law.
      Perhaps Amnesty International will file charges against him?  Perhaps Loretta Lynch, US AG, will file charges against him as she did against the FIFA leaders from the Americas?   Perhaps she will file a claim against Rome, the Pope, and the Vatican Bank?   She should, but she won't.
     Michael Keaton played Robbie, a local who became an editor at the GLOBE despite being a from Boston.
     5 Stars *****- worth the money

Boots on the Ground

      Writer author James Traub, a Harvard graduate, born 1954, writes for Foreign Policy Magazine and other publications.  He typically writes on international politics, foreign political figures, and international topics relevant in today's world.  Most recently, he wrote a piece for the NY Times Sunday Magazine.  This Sunday supplement, published weekly, is  a main feature in the bulky issue, full of timely articles that much of America depends on for important analysis and insightful commentary.
     Mr. Traub takes a phrase and breaks it apart to put its varied meanings in some type of recognizable form.  He is of the opinion that the oft repeated phrase has, in fact, served to allow politicians to delineate the limits of intervention by America's armed forces.   It has come to this: with 'serious' intervention, the USA will put troops on the ground at risk of their lives.  No boots on the ground means: 1) maybe US military will intervene but they won't be at risk, 2) US will use air assets(fighter bombers, drones, missiles) to accomplish short term goals, 4) Special Ops forces will be used, but their risks will be minimal.   Hmmmmm.
      Recent political candidates have taken a liking to the phrase.  Republican Ben Carson recently used the phrase 6 times in 2 sentences to emphasize his point.   Candidate Ted Cruz uses the phrase to add some impact to his statements, most recently at a speech at the conservative Heritage Foundation.  However, despite its usage by prominent public figures, the phrase actually serves as a marker for an announcement against using "boots on the ground".  In other words, these pols will not commit our military forces to the risks of ground combat.
      The Mayor takes exception to the use of the phrase.  It denigrates those very men and women whose feet fill those boots.  Why have the pols reduced 'soldiers' to 'boots on the ground'?  Because these gutless wonders would never have the fortitude to put themselves in any fashion into harm's way.
      The photo of the boots shows what a pair of "boots on the ground" looks like after a year filled with real feet on real ground by a real grunt.
 

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Movie Review: "Brooklyn"

       Is it a 'sleeper' or a 'snoozer' or a well-crafted story with mid-20th century cultural overtones underscored by another look at immigration?  Brooklyn, New York seems to be the focal point of lots of commentary in the popular media.  This sprawling borough of New York City has been  the home to middle-class America for at least 5 generations, and home to many immigrants from European countries, not the least Ireland and Italy.
      The story follows Ailish, a 20- something Irish girl from a small town in Ireland where she lived with her attractive older sister and her widowed mother.  After some correspondence with contacts in New York and the lack of prospects at home, she decides that moving to America is worth the risk.
      Upon arrival in her new home, she moves into a boarding house for single women run by a lovable but watchful Mrs. Keough.  The other 4 girls, more worldly and American, are bemused at their newest housemate and her small town simplicity.   Her department store job, while not very demanding, presents her with more than a few personal challenges as she begins to adapt.
     In time, she begins her makeover, and is successful: she finds a boyfriend; goes to night school and begins a new career, and becomes almost American.
    But tragedy intervenes at home-her sister dies suddenly and she returns to Ireland to comfort her Mother.   While there, despite her secret marriage in Brooklyn to a local Italian boy, she extends her stay and begins to see her former home in a new light.  Then the reality of small town living hits her head on as a local gossip tells her of her secret, locally unknown.  That ends any thought of a permanent homecoming, and she decides to return to Brooklyn and her new life.
5 Stars *****

Thursday, January 7, 2016

El Nino:2016; Firewood; Propane

      El Nino, the little fellow, has arrived on the West Coast.  Welcome aboard.   We here in California love El Nino- he brings the key to life: water, and lots of it.  We Tahomans see it in the form of snow, lots of it.  In the past week, we've seen several feet fall at the higher elevations, and a few at lake level.  Down the mountain, the half empty reservoirs are starting to look better than they have in 3-4 years, and more rain is in the forecast.   Yes, some locales may experience temporary flooding, but we understand that situation: we deal with it.
      The long, warm river of Equatorial water, El Nino, has been called the strongest in 19 years.  Looking at thermal images of the Pacific ocean surface temperatures, it is easy to appreciate the length and breadth of El Nino.   Recent snow depth surveys indicate that snow fall to date this winter is 5% above normal.  Maybe the skiing will continue to be world class through the next 2-3 months.  What a boost to the Highway 89 economy!  Enjoy.
Propane Prices
      Many folks have kept an eye on propane prices as heating appliances are put to the test.  While prices bumped up before Christmas, they are now much lower at $0.37/gallon at retail.  Maybe providers will be more willing to negotiate when asked for pricing information when about to order a refill.  $2.00/gal?  Why pay that much?

A Cord of Wood
        The Mayor feels obligated to remind buyers of firewood that the accepted standard is a cord of wood.  That is the unit quoted when buying firewood.  What/how much is a cord?
4' X 4' X 8', tightly packed.  That formula yields 128 cubic feet, no more, no less.  Tightly packed= all pieces aligned similarly, not alternately as some would have you believe.   Since many sellers in the basin receive wood from Central Valley wholesalers, it looks the same; but most often, it is not. To achieve the proper dimensions, a piece must be cut to 16" in length.   Rarely will one find a piece cut to 16".  So, most cords are short from the get go.  A sampling of pieces will give a buyer a measure of the accuracy of the dealers' statements.  The other tactic of sellers of delivered "cords" is to pull up to your house and dump the load.  Unless it has been stacked in the truck by hand, good luck on any meaningful assessment of quantity.   MOst dealers want a big fee for stacking.  hence, it's up to you to stack and measure on site.  Do it, and call them on a "short" cord delivery.  If no response, cancel the check immediately.   Don't pay in cash for wood- you have no protection against the common fraud.

Russyan Christmas:2016

       The Russyan Orthodox Church celebrates Christmas today across the largest country in the world.  How nice that they cling to these traditional holy days despite the lingering memories of atheism, Marxism, Stalinism, and, of course, Putinism.  January 7 on the old Julian calendar is recognized as the day of the birth of Jesus.  While the Julian calendar was dropped by mainstream Christians, the Eastern Orthodox branch kept it as their daily record keeper.
      Unfortunately, today will not be a great day of celebrations across the landscapes of the largest country in the world.  The price of a barrel of oil slid to new lows on world markets and futures prices look lower still.  The price of gasoline has dropped dramatically because of weak demand.  This seems to be contrary to the effect of huge auto sales in the US, which were up 15% in 2015, mostly with larger SUV's, crossovers, and pickup trucks which are not considered economy vehicles.  Many economists attribute the price slide because of China's weakening economy and weak growth prospects.  Adding this to the conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, Libya, and other spots, the outlook is not good.
       Will Russya begin to feel like Venezuela?  With so much of the economy dependent on oil prices, the coming recession could slip into a full depression.  Maybe the kremlinistas will rethink Crimea and Ukraine;  maybe not.   Maybe eastern Russya will look to the Pacific rim for economic solutions, ie. Japan.  Already, the prospects of increased Chinese influence in the east has abated.  The Amur River basin, the site of many Chinese workers, appears to have become less attractive to cross-border workers.
      What will be the case in the spring when prices hit $20/barrel in the markets?  Look into the crystal ball........

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Largest Country in the World Loses Top General

      A well respected military officer in the Russyan Army died over the New years' weekend.  A statement was posted on the Kremlin's website to the effect that Col. Gen. Igor Sergun died unexpectedly.  In a report released to the Interfax news agency,  Russyan Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that gen. Sergun died on Sunday.  No cause of death was included in the bulletin.
     Gen. Segun was only 58 years old and had joined the military as a very young man in 1973.  He joined the GRU in 2011 and was the Deputy chief of Russya's general staff.
     Was it too much party as the new year was ushered in?  Too much vodka at the party?    Was he among the in-crowd?  Was he a friend-of-Vlad?   When you are the head of Main Intelligence Directorate(GRU), you know things.  Maybe he knew too much.   The true story may not be known for awhile, but, it will come out sooner rather than later. 

Monday, January 4, 2016

Minister Does Copacabana at New Years'

      Our Minister of Latin American Affairs had a weekend to himself and spent time at Rio's famed Copacabana Beach.  A traditional fireworks show was the highlight of the New Years Eve celebrations.   Over a million locals crowded onto the sand, stretching from one end to the other, gazing skyward as the spectacular show lit up the night skies.
      The Minister was hosting a group of friends from Belo Horizonte and Santos who wanted to see the show.  He had rented a house for the long weekend and it all worked out to perfection.  Today, Monday, it was back to work.   Pictures will be forth coming but we've heard certain Facebook pages feature many a New Years Eve foto.
Buon Anno

Sunday, January 3, 2016

Trouble in Tehran: Saudis Called to Task

      Saudi government executed a large number of alleged terrorists yesterday, including an outspoken critic of the government.  The 47 year old cleric rebuked the royal family for its treatment of minority groups in Saudi Arabia.  With little legal representation or proper defense proceedings, the alleged criminals were executed in secret without any outside witnesses or media representatives.  Protests begin almost immediately in Iran, where protesters stormed the Saudi embassy and set it on fire.
     The Saudi government called the Iranian ambassador to the palace in Riyadh where he was subjected to harsh criticisms for his government's lack of protection for the diplomatic compound in the capitol of Tehran.  These executions were the largest carried out in decades, and the most since the ascension of the new king in Saudi Arabia, King Salman.  Increased crackdown on dissension and terrorism send a message to those who would foment terrorist activities will be dealt with harshly, including immediate execution without legal recourse, despite flimsy charges and ambiguous evidence to support the charges.  In other words, nobody is safe in saudi Arabia from the whims of the royal family.  What an abuse of the term "royal".
     The Middle East and its governments continue their  mission to abuse humanity.

Friday, January 1, 2016

Book Review: Black Dragon River, Dominic Zeigler, author, Penguin Books

    The subtitle: A Journey Down the Amur River at the Borderland of Empires tells all.  This is the story of the vast eastern landscape of Russya that gets overshadowed by the Russya west of the Ural Mountains, the European oriented Russya.   The Amur River is one of the truly great rivers on the globe.   Longer than the Mekong and Congo rivers, the river combines with the Ob, the Lena, and the Yenesei to form an immense network and drains an area as large as Western Europe.  It is the only major river that flows west to east, and instead of an Arctic delta, its mouth is in the Pacific Ocean.  When frozen over, it forms a highway for Russyans who use it as an avenue to the east expanse of Siberia.
     After the Mongols retreated in 1582, Russyans turned eastward, seeking fortunes and treasures similar to the American West.   The Russyans found food in the form of unlimited fish.  Then, "soft gold", the sable fur.   Then the fur seal, slaughtered like the American buffalo to the edge of extinction.  As they moved eastward, they encountered another expanding culture: the late-to-the-game  Qing Dynasty of China.  But, they were able to sign a very equitable pact that they both respected.  It was this treaty-The Treaty of Nerchinsk, spelled out in Latin, that both parties observed until the falling out as Communists during the Cold War.  Nuclear war was narrowly averted, but the deep underlying suspicions remain today.  Today, Russya fears the Chinese immigrants that seem to be everywhere along the border.  But trade exists and this profitable enterprise includes timber, which is harvested in Siberia.  In one year, an amount that would cover Iceland is sent to China.  The slow growing trees will not come back any time soon.  Does Mr. Putin care?  Not really.
      There are 8 million Russyans in the east, about 1 % of the population.  There is an equal number of Chinese immigrants.  Yes, 8 million Chinese nationals along the Amur River.  Nobody mentions this.  Most people are concerned about Syrians, or 1 million refugees, a paltry sum by comparison.
     So, the Chinese move under the radar, slowly, but continually rolling up the Siberian landscape.  Mr. Putin keeps the eyes of Russya on Ukraine, Crimea, and Syria-much easier to move there than against China.
     The author, Mr. Ziegler is a great writer.  He is the Asian editor for the ECONOMIST, and is well versed on geography, economics, and politics of the region.
5 stars *****+ 

Who Turned Out the Lights in Crimea?

        Mr. Putin, everybody's favorite ex-KGB oligarch national leader of the Largest Country in the World, decided that he would ask the locals in Crimea if they want a new electricity service contract with Ukraine that includes wording to the effect that Crimea is still  part of Ukraine.   Seems that after a few power pylons were blown down by dissidents recently, power has been in short supply.  Russya has been unable to make up the difference and the Crimeans are unhappy with Kremlin's empty promises.  Hmmmmm.  What now Mr. Putinsky?   Maybe you are stretched a little thin these days, what with Syria becoming more of a problem; Turkey getting less friendly; Chechens being Chechens; price of oil going down, down, down; cheese prices going up, up, up; food more expensive; roubles fleeing the country; recession taking a grip on everybody; can't get a date; Donald Trump didn't go to your New Years' Eve bash that had lots of cover girls in attendance.
      The public survey to be taken in Crimea will ask Crimeans whether to accept the wording in the new contract and get reliable electric supplies, or reject it and live with rolling blackouts.  The survey will be completed by today.   The Federal Security Service will publish results to ensure they are valid and not tainted by the CIA or NSA or NFL or MLB or NCAA or STASI or DISNEY.

Iran and Its Missiles

       So, you don't like my nuclear program, Obama?  How about my missiles?  These hypothetical questions ricocheted around Washington this week as 2015 wound to closure.   Iran fired two medium range missiles that passed within 1500 meters of 3 US Navy ships in the Straits of Hormuz.  A protest from the Pentagon was scoffed at by the Iran military, saying it was only a test and not included in the terms of the recently completed nuclear arms agreement.  Meanwhile, the White House announced new sanctions were being considered against visa-free travel for anyone who has traveled to Iran, Syria, Sudan, and Iraq.  This move was actually signed into law on December 18th.
      So, the dance continues between the President and the Ayatollah.  The old sacntions were to be lifted shortly, but now with these new developments, Obama will be under pressure to keep those sanctions in place and impose a new round against Iran.  It's not easy being president.  The Obamas have been in Hawaii for the holidays, Obama's home state and where he has vacationed routinely at this time of year.  Obviously, he is not really on vacation, only giving the 'appearance' of a vacation.  The girls know this, but in another 10 months, it will be over for them and Barry as his replacement will have been elected.

Chinese Like to Fly

       So, all the satellite photos taken over northeast China indicated that there is construction going on of a naval vessel with a large, flat deck.  Read flight deck.  Duh.  =Aircraft Carrier.  The other vessel with that mission, a Ukrainian cast off from 1998, is still lurking about on its mission to train future officers and crew members for the new ship.  The Ukrainian ship, the Liaoning, configured with the upswing foredeck, is nearing the end of its useful life.
      Chinese defense officers announced the obvious that China needed the new carrier to maintain national security along its long Pacific coastline.   This comes at a time of high tensions in the South China Sea over disputed claims to a few piles of exposed rocks that are claimed by several other nations, namely, the Phillipine Islands, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Australia.  In addition, ethnic violence in China's Northwest state has displayed unrest among minority Uighars who claim that the Han-majority Chinese are actively suppressing the Islamists in the region.  They, the Uighars want a separate state-East Turkestan, to be independent.  Radio Free Asia has announced that violence continues to rock the region.
     As part of the Chinese effort to fend off criticism, a full page ad was inserted into the print edition of the WSJ, describing the Chinese economy as ready to rebound in 2016 after slipping in 2015, causing a widening ripple effect on the global economy as international businesses cut back on their own models as the contraction in China weighed on earnings.

Biden Hosts Island Nation Leaders

       In the first ever meeting among Pacific allies, President Biden hosted a tripartite meeting in Washington, DC. His goal: to indicate ...