Book Review: Lullabies For Lieutenants: An Forward Observer in Vietnam 1965-66, F. Cox

         So, here we are: living with another war against an invisible foe that spans the globe.  Victims can be found among all citizens everywhere.  The enemy is a virus, visible only under a microscope.  55 years ago, the war was with a different enemy: Communists fighting for unification of a former colonial country ruled by the French for 80 years +/-.  After the defeat of Japan,  the Vietnamese sought independence from foreign overlords and sought help from the United Nations and the Allied victors who defeated Germany and Japan.  However, the US thought that a takeover by the followers of Ho Chi Minh would lead to a Communist regime which would position itself under the umbrella of Communist China(under Mao since 1949), and Russya, under Stalin since 1924.   President Eisenhower, a Republican former Army general, decided to support the French effort and gave financial backing to their ill-fated efforts which was carried out largely by colonial troops and the Foreign Legion.   Pres. Kennedy continued the cause and although he was hesitant to wade in, he added advisors, until he was assassinated in November 1963.   President Johnson then studied the same sad procession of events and added his own efforts, leading to a gradual build out during his administration(s) that led to over 575,000 troops on the ground in 1968.
      Frank Cox was one of the first Marine officers to land with the 9th Marine Regiment at Danang in 1965.  Initially, their role was to provide security for the airfield along the shore of Danang harbor.  Soon, that role gradually expanded to provide security for the city of Danang and then the surrounding countryside.   With each expansion of the mission, the casualty count among the Marines began to rise.  Each Marine battalion has an artillery unit in support of its efforts.   Mr. Cox was a lieutenant trained as an artillery officer and this was his first assignment on foreign soil.   He was attached to an admin role upon his arrival, detailed to assist in logistical support of the unit.  After a few months he was then assigned to join an infantry company in the field where he would be responsible to call in artillery fire.  And thus, he began the role he was trained to do.  What followed was a tour of work that reflected the early phase of the war.  It was at this point, a guerilla war, fought against armed locals, called Viet Cong.  They operated in clandestine cell groups, picking targets without any attempt to capture strong points or defeat Marine units in the field.   Often, the hit and run tactics caused numerous Marine casualties and many more amongst the civilian population who lived in the villages sprinkled over the countryside.   The coastal area around Danang is relatively flat and a major rice growing region.   The patrolling Marines had to differentiate between friend and foe, not an easy task. 

Book Review: Prisoners of Geography, by Tim Marshall

       Every now and then, a writer takes on the world, for better or for worse.  Tim Marshall is a modern writer on the subject of world politics/geopolitics, and world hot spots.  He is a British journalist and reporter and has reported on world politics for over 30 years.  He was political editir for Sky News, worked for the BBC, and has written for the NY Times.  He has authored several books, and this one is a best seller.   He was educated at Otley University(now Easton) in Norwich, in the south east of the UK.
       This book follows a reporter's path around the globe.  He covers all the usual suspects, and does an admirable job blending history with geography, much as a professional geographer would in any academic research.   Mr. Marshall's experience covering major topics comes shining through as he navigates the ebb and flow of boundary lines;  the dissolution of blended governments; the assumption of others; the fall of leaders; the rise of replacements; the struggle for power among minority elements of the population; the mass migrations of the disaffected.   His title reflects a new twist on an older geographic theory: essentially-environmental determinism: geography dictates man's use of the natural landscape.  However, centuries of study and research have given this ideology the lie:  man is the determining factor, and willfully bends the landscape to his will.   This in itself runs head long into the current coinage that man has over reached and must in time yield to nature or suffer a continuous setback.
      So, Mr. Marshall, despite the book's title, reports on world events with a look at history; with the 20th century events as the keystone of his efforts.  As it proceeds along a circuitous world journey, he is able to put politics in perspective relative to today's hotspots, be they in the Middle East, Africa, South America, China, Russia, and North America.   While many places and names are familiar to media readers/followers, many more obscure places often are unknown to average readers.  He is able to bring these countries into sharp focus and identify cause and effect.  While he does well with the landscape, he over states the weight of position on the globe:  coastal, mountainous, high elevation, high latitudes, desert proximity, navigable rivers, suitable river flows, deep water harbors, growing season length, trade facilitators and trade enhancers, weather and climate.
      The attached map of USA highlights both natural landscape and population centers as regional responses to the coronavirus differed among the states: the northeast saw almost no traffic movement, while in the South and West, differences are apparent, but more to do with politics than landscape/geography.

Map of USA Travel Volumes March 27, 2020

       I recommend this book as a modern reader to assist the citizenry to assess the worldwide response to the pandemic we are living with, now  and in the immediate future.

Wuhan, Hubei Province, China: The Source of it All

      Well, now.  It seems that more information is bubbling up to the surface about how the coronavirus emerged as a global pandemic.  The Communist government in Beijing proposed thatthe virus originated in a so called "wet market" in the large central city of Wuhan.  A wet market is where people so inclined buy live animals for their cooking and eating experience, a tradition in the culture.
Wuhan is also the site of a state-run virology laboratory that studies viruses and other pathogens.  This facility is well known and was visited by US Dept. of State personnel in 2018.  The report filed by these visitors noted that the facility was not well managed.   Personnel working there did not have adequate training in the field; the facility was not properly secured; procedures were lax in the area of personal protections; and supervisors did not perform adequate oversight of individuals' efforts to contain research viruses in their laboratories.
       Secretary of State Michael Pompeo acknowledges that they have known of this local situation in Wuhan for sometime, hence the visit by State Dept. personnel in 2018.  Despite the statements of the Communist government, it appears there has been a lack of candor from Beijing regarding the operations of the lab.

Temple Beijing

wet Market items

Hong KOng Eye

Internat airport

Chinese Opera

Highway 89 and West Shore Information Meetings

      Well, now.  Amidst the present turmoil in California, the bureaucracy continues to function.  Some people are working somewhere, to be sure.   And some have Tahoma in mind.  Or at least the West Shore, our locale.  After years of wrangling over recreational improvements, it seems that things are moving ahead.  And the bureaucrats are asking US to help.  Help by offering comments and suggestions to tentative plans.
      Three meetings have been calendared to open discussion of plans for the following projects:
1) State Route 89 Recreation Corridor Mgmt Plan
(SR 89 from Camp Richardson to Sugar Pine State Park(on Tahoma's doorstep).
a video meeting is avail on vimeo.com405235880.

2)  Meeks Bay Restoration Project
     This one of the most important projects to be developed on the West Shore in years.  After the large bike trail extension, completed last summer, it is logical to finish that project with massive improvements at Meeks Bay/and the resort itself.  This will include Meeks Bay Lagoon restoration(the delta of Meeks Creek actually);
     a) Parking improvements and camp ground reconstruction 
     b) Public Pier construction
     c) boat launch ramp construction
All of these improvements are sorely needed for West Shore residents and visitors alike.  It's been over 3 years since the lagoon was closed to all boats; the ramp was closed for all launching; and the camp ground was diminished in spaces.  See more info at this site:  friendswestshore.org/meeks-bay-restoration-project

3)  West Shore Restoration
    TRPA virtual meeting on 4/22/20trpa.org
    USDA Forest Service @ 4:30pm on 4/28/20 virtual meeting

      These meetings will generate considerable information for homeowners along the West Shore and hopefully will provide a blueprint for a great future along out lake front.

Meeks Bay: Morning

San Francisco Has A Homeless Problem: Again

       So, over the last 2-5 years, the media has focused on the visible evidence of the City's obvious homeless problems.   Whether a photo of an indigent living on the street, or an article about the plight of certain individuals among the group, the public has been kept informed on the problem and the City's inability to change the numbers, excepting those numbers reflecting an extraordinary amount of tax money spent to deal with the homeless.
      The problem is not new:  when former Mayor Willie Brown was in office at City Hall, his progressive left hounded him into action.  He was wise enough to do something to assuage the feelings of the do-gooders who argued that "something "-"anything" must be done NOW.  The results were the usual high-visibilty temporary fixes:  short term housing options that extended to those who could get themselves to a shelter.  Most of the shelters were in the South of Market area(before the present day ascendancy of the area).  One in particular stood out: a converted warehouse on land that would be used later as a parking area for the new Giants baseball stadium.  This warehouse-a large open bay structure used just for the warehousing of goods before distribution to customers in the City-housed at the high point 700 individuals, maintained by City -provided staff(some private employees under contract also).  The homeless were given a cot to sleep on, bathroom facilities immediately adjacent, showers also included, and meals brought in to support those living there.  Soon it became evident that this collection point brought its own problems:  health needs were not addressed among a population that needed more than the average cohort;  mental health issues that caused interpersonal conflicts without local resolution; sex and identity issues(who identifies as what gender); personal property security; pet support and security; and the inevitable emergency response needs.  The fact that the sites south of Market were temporary, City staffers could plan for long term solutions.   Those solutions were never able to stem the tide.
     It has been over 20 years since that turn of the millennium period of 2000, and the problem has only gotten worse.  As the Dot-com era retreated and was replaced by the digital application era, the City became a magnet for entrepeneurs,  social media startups, and multi-billion dollar IPO's that launched a new City atmosphere of unparalleled financial success, concentrated in the tech industry as it spilled north from Silicon Valley, the seed bed of all things tech in the world.  An adjunct tothe rise of tech was a housing affordability problem.
      And now: the coronavirus.  It's a new ballgame for everybody, including the homeless of San Francisco.   Mayor London Breed has earmarked $105 millions of tax dollars to provide housing for the homeless in local hotels that have been left empty by the dearth of travelers forced into lockdown wherever they live.  The numbers of tourists has been reduced essentially to zero.  Hence, new space available for the "homeless" needing shelter.  The money will provide up to 7,000 hotel rooms for 3 months.   This will have the effect of providing job support for the service sector employees of those same hotels.   Absent will be the 14% occupancy tax paid by the tourist for the room.  The question is: will it work?  TBD.
       Pundits and pols have been scratching their collective heads for decades in an attempt to find solutions for this intractable problem.   Given the inability of local jurisdictions to restrict the flows of individuals into the cities themselves, the problem then becomes a Federal problem; which requires a Federal solution.  This requires federal funds to succeed in any measure.  Sociologists, medical experts, politicians, and scientists have yet to agree on what might have a chance of succeeding.  Meanwhile, cities throw more and more money at the problems without making a difference in outcomes.
       Can this program make a difference even with the coronavirus onslaught?  No way.  Given the extraordinary needs of this subgroup of the population and a track record of its own inability to succeed, the only benefit will be to those hotel owners and their employees who can work through the lockdown period we live with currently.   At the end of 3 months, look for the inevitable extension until hotel owners say enough, "We can't take it anymore".   Meaning the infection rate among staff is too high, and too costly.  Then what?  Tent cities in Golden Gate Park as they were after the Earthquake and Fire of '06?
     Stay tuned.

Night: Golden Gate Bridge

 

Insurance Company Gives Refunds

       USAA, the large Texas-based insurer for auto/life/home, announced via email that the company will post 2 months of premiums to those members who currently hold auto insurance policies with the company.  This will amount to over $520 millions to members across the country, most of whom reside in California.  Unlike the scum at the airlines, the insurers are acting with their policy holders in mind.  The form will come in a credit for two months during your payment year.  Look for it next month.
      The customers in California appreciate this refund at this time of economic stress across the entire state as unemployment reaches new records in a very short time.

It Is A Super Moon

      Well, it is a clear night in Tahoma, by the shores of Lake Tahoe.  So, with the temp now at about 36 degrees F, take a stroll, look across the placid lake surface, look at the moon:  it's as close as it gets to Mother Earth.  That is, about 229,000 miles away.  Yes, not that far in galaxy distances, but, hey, it's all we've got that reachable(notwithstanding Mr. Musk and Space X).
       Maybe somebody will return to the moon.  Perhaps the Chinese will use it as a stepping stone(a step?) to another planet in our solar system.  Maybe Mars?  Or how about Jupiter-that's a big one and hard to miss.  Maybe Vlad Putin will send a few rubles to the moon with a flag and claim rights, kind of like what he did in Crimea and Ukraine.  Not much going on in Eastern Ukraine(DonBass region).  I hear there's still some shooting going on occasionally, but the locals are sort of tired of all the BS and would like it to be over.
        Meanwhile, the DOJ has designated a Russyan white supremecist organization as a criminal enterprise of sorts.  That puts its members and supporters on notice that they will henceforth be actively observed and legally scrutinized by policing organizations worldwide.
Watch the moon and have a nice night.

Black Duck to go:Wuhan Airport

The Chinese Like Coffee

       Starbucks, the American company founded in Seattle, Washington well over 20 years ago, established itself in China a few years ago.  The company and its products became an icon among Chinese youth and students, going to the coffee house for a taste of espresso, American style.  Like so many American products, the Chinese business community tries to imitate and or copy the product line for domestic consumption.  Often it is done by coercion, government pressure, or out right theft.
Enter Charles Zhengyao Lu.  He and a partner, Jenny Zhiya Qian, co-founder, started their coffee company in 2017.  That's right: 2017, or yesterday, really.  
      Within 18 months, the company made a NASDAQ initial public offering, one of the fastest ascensions by a startup globally.  The company raised more than $2 billion from private and public investors.  Then they opened more than 4500 stores and in the process over took Starbucks as coffee bar leader in China.  And then..................
       Company employees disclosed that most of the sales figures from 2019 had been fabricated.  What a shock to those Chinese coffee drinkers.  Oh, wait a minute.  Do they care about share price?  Hell, no.   They want a decent shot of espresso, maybe with a dab of foam.  Bankers on the other hand became apoplectic.  All those shares of stock that had reached above $26(ADR's), were now valued somewhere south of $5.38 last Friday,  April 3rd.  Then Monday, April 6, the shares nose dived to $4.39.   Those of us who've been around for awhile, remember the old days in China when such a public disgrace would cause some seriously harsh reprisals.  Usually a show trial, followed by a confession, then a summary execution, usually in front of a live audience.  Times have changed; haven't they.  No more executions; bad for business; bad for public relations.  So, Mr. Lu will no doubt suffer some personal losses; his partner, Ms. Qian, even more. 
       Let's not overlook the American bank who gave loans to the company backed by equity shares as collateral.    Goldman Sachs had a margin loan of $518 million that had been backed by shares valued at $3 billion at the end of 2019(about 3 months ago!!!!!).   Credit Suisse, another bank with mud on its shoes, was the front runner in the IPO and is the holder of shares lenders are looking to sell.  They declined to comment on the affair.
      Oh, Luckin Coffee claims that its beverage is premium Arabica coffee.  Wanna bet it's something other than that?

Not a Luckin coffee house

coffee house poster boys

Snowing in the Sierra

     A road hazard alert has been issued for the Sierra Nevada as an early Spring snow storm rolls across the northern and southern Sierra.  It is expected to dump perhaps 12"-18" of fresh powder.  Unfortunately, no skiers will be able to take advantage because all of the reorts and lifts are closed until next season.  Maybe you can hoof it up the slope on your own.
Good Luck.  Drive safely. 

How Italy Became a Hotspot for Viral Infections

        The city of Bergamo, situated in northern Italy,  is a large city with a population of about 130,000 residents.   For years, its local soccer football team, Atalanta, was rarely considered a top tier threat among the better known teams(AC Milan, Juve, Roma, etc.).  But that changed dramatically this season as the team kept winning against strong opponents who normally would count on an easy victory.   A contest was scheduled in Bergamo in mid February, but team owners decided to ove the contest to the larger venue in Milan, which could accommodate twice as many rabid fans, not just from Atalanta, but the Spanish team from Valencia.  On February 19, fans descended on Milan from Bergamo and Valencia, but also from other cities in northern Italy such as Brescia, Lodi, and Venezia.
The Italians won the contest, but it wasn't long before the grim outcome of the gathering took shape across the region.  People started to show up at hospital with respiratory infections.
        At the same time, travel groups returning from China also started showing up in medical facilities with respiratory infections.  A perfect storm was brewing as medical authorities of the national health system became concerned as the numbers of patients soared in a very short time.  It was noted early on,that a large number of patients were in the older age cohort of the population: those seniors over age 65, 75, and 80 years of age.  And they began to die.  Now Italy has the highest death toll among western nations at 15, 562.   This sad distinction indicates the poor response to evidence that there was a virus infecting Italians by people who had attended the soccer match on February 19th in Milan.  It didn't take long for similar results to appear in Spain.  As of this morning, Spain is reporting 11,744 deaths due to COVID-19 the disease related to the coronavirus infection.
        An associated event-a football match, took place in Liverpool just last month.  It was well attended by fans following both teams.  Lo and behold, there is an outbreak of coronavirus in Liverpool.   Hmmmmm.  And now we have to report that the Prime Minister of the UK, Mr. Boris Johnson, has been moved in the hospital to the ICU as his condition has worsened since he was admitted to days ago as the coronavirus has spread in his body.  He is receiving oxygen, but is not attached to a ventilator at last report.  The Queen, Her Royal Highness Elizabeth II, made a public statement to reassure the country that this too will pass.  This is only the forth time during her remarkable reign when the Queen made such a public statement.

Last Flight Out of Russya

        The passengers were loaded up, getting comfortable for their flight back to the USA.  Sure, it was a flight on AEROFLOT,  the state-owned airline with a reputation well earned for poor service, but  the passengers were obviously willing to overlook those shortcomings for the opportunity to return to the USA where things could be a bit more comfortable regarding local efforts to control the pandemic.   And then: everything changed.
       Orders from higher up(the Kremlin) caused the cancellation of the last flight out of the country to the USA.  Can you imagine the sinking feeling? " Now listen up:  all passengers will immediately disembark the aircraft and return to the terminal while we await new operational instructions from the administration.  Please remove all stowed baggage and personal items and take them with you to the terminal.   Thank you for your cooperation."   Now what?  Is this just a technical glitch or a mechanical problem?  What is going to happen now?  Needless to say, these American passengers will now be stuck abroad for an undetermined amount of time, the duration of which will, of course, be subject to the whim of President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.  This is a situation most people would not look forward to under any circumstances.
       While this is playing out locally, internationally there's another situation playing out:  the politics of oil production has moved to the fore of international negotiations among oil producing nations.  The recent depression of oil prices has driven producers to the table to discuss production amounts to shore up prices by limiting extraction.   The concomitant problem:  not enough storage capacity has not helped.  Where can this oil be stored?  Right now, there are almost 100 supertankers laying somewhere around the globe at anchor-floating storage tanks.   It costs more aboard a ship than on land in a tank farm.   The US president said he would help domestic oil companies- offer financial assistance as a number of shale drillers/producers have filed for bankruptcy protections as costs exceed current market prices.  The Saudi government has made an attempt to negotiate with Russya, but they differ dramatically on solutions to each others financial position.   Who benefits form lower production limits?  Who can hold out longer at current pricing?  Hmmmm.
      Is it time to wrestle with our "Saudi" friends, led by the volatile MBS, the 33 year old son of the reigning king?   The same man who engineered the grisly murder of a journalist who went to the embassy in Lebanon and was never seen or heard from again?(Mr. Kashhoggi).  Do we want to help the man who sent his Little Green men into Ukraine and then Crimea?   I don't think so.  Lots of issues here, in addition to all of the coronavirus pandemic problems sweeping the globe.

Vlad Cover Boy

Vladimir with Church

Vlad

Winter: Again, for about a Week

lake calm December

       So, feel the temps dropping today?  Feel the wind pickup through the sugar pines along Highway 89?   Oh, yes, it's springtime in the Sierra.  Spring skiing?  Not this year, my friend.  The Pandemic, you know all about.   All the resorts are closed.  Folks are sheltering in place except to buy food and essentials to survive the ordeal.  So expect about 10"-16"of fresf snow over the next 6 days and nights.  What a pain!  Locked down; confined at home.  Yes, could be worse.  You could be in a refugee camp in a hostile foreign country with no friends, no family to help.  So, make the best of this late blast of winter snow.  It will add to the 50% of normal snow pack and give a lift to the Dept. f Water Resources. 

Famous Bronze in Reggio Calabria

      Easter is not far away.  There will be no family celebrations this year.  Not here, not in Rome, not in Jerusalem, not in Reno or LA.  The party is over for awhile.

Monks in Line in mountains

Huawei Threatens US Government WIth Reprisal

     The Trump administration, not losing a beat during the pandemic,  has arranged to close off a key supplier to Huawei's manufacturing plants in China.  The key source of specialty chips,  Taiwan Semiconductor  Manufacturing Co., the world's largest contract-chip manufacturer, will no longer be available to Huawei as the U.S. tightens control of all things in the realm of 5G to prevent Beijing from enlisting countries around the world to install their systems.  The US contends that the 5G networks would be under the control of the Chinese government and compromise the internal security operations of western allies.
       Eric Xu, chairman of the company, says he believes Beijing will respond in some manner to this latest move by the Trump administration.  While they have options in China and South Korea,  the company contends that this move could upend the entire technological ecosystem.  Huawei is a company that reported $121 billion in revenue with a net of $8.8 billion.  An increase in sales spanned continents as markets were continuing to be developed not just at home, but in the Middle East and Europe.   Chief executive and founder, Ren Zhenfei said that the company plans to invest $20 billion in R & D this year, more than double its net income for 2019.
      So, watch out WAshington, here come China(where a mask, please).

European Bankers Hoodwink American Investment Banks

      So,  European bankers were wondering, "What can we do with these non-performing, bad loans that we carry on our books?"  Well, it seems that they could resort to an old tactic that has worked with  certain greedy, grubby investors who are not content with average returns.  "If we fatten up the portfolios and sell them at a steep discount, we might catch a few  "fish".   Let's try Wall Street, they think they're the sharpest tools in the shed and they are always looking for deals."
      So, those same European bankers cast about in some likely pools full of hungry fish and sure enough, they got some bites, and landed more than a few big ones.
Like who?  Let's make a list:
Cerberus-79.6 Billion euros
Blackstone Capital -53 billion euros
Lone Star  -27.6 billion euros
Goldman Sachs - 13.7 billions
Oaktree 11 billion euros
Davidson/Kempner 10,1 billion eu
Bain Capital-10.6 billion eu
CarVal- 15.7 billions eu
Intrum 26.1 billions eu
Banca Ifis 10.7 billions eu
       These amounts are less than half of the 600 billion euros in bad loans sold by European banks to eager investors.  What a coup!  Can you imagine the dancing going on in the financial capitols of Europe?  Even the City of London was dumping.   Where did these bad loans originate?  With the usual suspects:  Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, some from eastern Euro members, too.  Now that the world economy is in free fall, it is doubtful that any of these loans will ever pay any return on investment.  Too bad for you, Wall Streeters.  Take a haircut; take a bath, take a hike.  We got you this time; and will get you again, soon.  Count on it.

Words of Wisdom for Our Times

Farallone Islands Sunset California Coast

Our job is to widen
the circle of our compassion until we feel connected
to all people in all situations
Albert Einstein, noted physicist