Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Athens: the New Stopover Point on the Route to Germany
Been to Athens lately? Need a smuggler? How about a ticket to Hamburg? Bus ride to Austria? Boat ride to Bari, Italy? Go to Athens.
Brazil: No Surprises Here
Has anybody noticed that Brazil is having a political/governmental crisis? No, nobody can tell the difference between current events and past events. It's business as usual. Conditions: normal.
Get ready for the Olympics. It will prove to be challenging for the IOC.
Stay tuned.
Get ready for the Olympics. It will prove to be challenging for the IOC.
Stay tuned.
Putin's Adoption Shut Down
The statistics are out. It was revealed that not one Russyan child has been adopted by American parents last year. How could this be? Is it true? Because of Mr. Putin's outlandish land grabs in Ukraine and Crimea, the USA imposed sanctions on individual Russyans and banking and finance companies. In a childish move, the former KGB colonel and vice mayor of St. Petersburg, blocked the adoption of children from Russya by American parents. Who suffers?
Not the American parents, not America, not the birth mother/and father: the child/children, of course. It underscores the attitude of the Russyan president and former prime minister. The current Prime Minister, Mr. Medvedev, has said little, owing to his allegiance to the president of the largest country in the world. Geopolitics aside, any remnant of decency among Kremlinistas has gone the way of history. Using children as pawns is an illustration of serious mental challenges, on a national scale.
Russyans: you gotta luv 'em.
Not the American parents, not America, not the birth mother/and father: the child/children, of course. It underscores the attitude of the Russyan president and former prime minister. The current Prime Minister, Mr. Medvedev, has said little, owing to his allegiance to the president of the largest country in the world. Geopolitics aside, any remnant of decency among Kremlinistas has gone the way of history. Using children as pawns is an illustration of serious mental challenges, on a national scale.
Russyans: you gotta luv 'em.
Monday, March 28, 2016
Easter, the Uprising, 100 Years Later
The Irish Uprising, 100 years ago. Remembered, this Easter 2016. Never forget.
Belgium Struggles in Aftermath of two Bombings
The City of Brussels is still recovering from the shock of mass murder by terrorists of the homegrown type. The bombing in the subway amidst riders and the bombing in the airport security check point has left the locals stunned in disbelief. To further complicate the situation, it was reported today that Belgian/Brussels police administration released one of the arrested suspects by accident. They have called for assistance from locals to help find the missing 'released' suspect. As we say in this country: "Are you kidding me?".
It is common knowledge in Europe that Belgium is a challenging place. The sharp political divides have led the country down a path of divisive administration which has led to political stagnation which has led to paralysis of state security practice and policy. The exposure of the extensive muslim suburbs and inner city neighborhoods that are almost 100% muslim has focused the world's attention on the migrant problem not only in Belgium but throughout Western Europe. Whereas governments have preached open arms and welcoming social programs, the evidence speaks otherwise. Unemployment figures tell the story: in the critical age groups 21-24 years of age, and 24-35 years of age, the rates can be as high as 40% or more. Several generations now exist that have not been absorbed into the main European fabric. This can be seen elsewhere, as in France, where North Africans have been on the continent since the post WWII fifties, and still are not fully integrated nor accepted, despite their French language skills and their citizenship status as full members.
Now the EU has given Turkey visa-free travel privileges and 6.8 billion euros to help with the modern refugee crisis involving Syrian, Iraqi, and Afghani refugees seeking safety from war zones at home. Can this be happening in the 21st century? It is, and it will until the EU gets serious about it, and acts accordingly.
It is common knowledge in Europe that Belgium is a challenging place. The sharp political divides have led the country down a path of divisive administration which has led to political stagnation which has led to paralysis of state security practice and policy. The exposure of the extensive muslim suburbs and inner city neighborhoods that are almost 100% muslim has focused the world's attention on the migrant problem not only in Belgium but throughout Western Europe. Whereas governments have preached open arms and welcoming social programs, the evidence speaks otherwise. Unemployment figures tell the story: in the critical age groups 21-24 years of age, and 24-35 years of age, the rates can be as high as 40% or more. Several generations now exist that have not been absorbed into the main European fabric. This can be seen elsewhere, as in France, where North Africans have been on the continent since the post WWII fifties, and still are not fully integrated nor accepted, despite their French language skills and their citizenship status as full members.
Now the EU has given Turkey visa-free travel privileges and 6.8 billion euros to help with the modern refugee crisis involving Syrian, Iraqi, and Afghani refugees seeking safety from war zones at home. Can this be happening in the 21st century? It is, and it will until the EU gets serious about it, and acts accordingly.
Wednesday, March 23, 2016
Obama Continues Swing South
The Prez, in an attempt to save some $$$$, continues south after leaving the island Paradise of Cuba to visit Argentina. He will meet with new president Macri', who seems intent on putting a new economic foot forward. Prez. Macri' seems to have settled the long lasting dispute over bond payments to international clients that festered during the reign of the Kirchner cabal that has effectively shut Argentina out of international finance. The New York court that ordered the country to pay has approved of the deal that gives the bond holders 75% of the money due. This has gone on for 15+ years. Kristina Kirchner was unable and/or unwilling to make the necessary concessions because of bad advice and economic ignorance, and stupidity.
Obama will encourage Macri' to continue his financial reforms to liberate the country from stagnant populist politics that has stymied growth for decades. Maybe Obama can work some magic, maybe not. Maybe he'll go to Patagonia and look at the penguins.
Obama will encourage Macri' to continue his financial reforms to liberate the country from stagnant populist politics that has stymied growth for decades. Maybe Obama can work some magic, maybe not. Maybe he'll go to Patagonia and look at the penguins.
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
New Snow in Tahoma
March Madness brings a foot of new snow and it's still coming down! Thanks to a new system passing through yesterday and today, Highway 89 and environs received over a foot of powder. Above 7000', 16" of new snow was reported. Definitely skiing on Easter this year. It's been a long time since there has been snow in April of sufficient depth and quality to entice even the most jaded skiers. Spring skiing will be terrific. It will be "Amazing". It will be the best ever. You can count on it.(or words to that effect by the Donald, who won another primary today somewhere out west. Great.
Baseball Diplomacy: 2016, Cuba
Prez Obama went out to the "ol' Ballgame today- in Havana, Cuba, with the head dictator hisself, Raul Castro, successor to his big bro, Fidel, who is cooling his heels in an institution for Alheimers patients in an undisclosed location. The American Tampa Rays baseball club played a "friendly" with the Cuban national team, that group of aging players who didn't defect when they could years ago.
The two executives watched a couple of innings, then split. Obama wanted to meet with local dissidents who wanted to tell him that despite his efforts, the arrests of protesters against the regime continues, with 2,200+ arrests so far this year. That comes on top of almost 8,000 arrests last year.
The weather was rainy yesterday, but today was better for the historic meeting. Some dissidents were able to express dissatisfaction with their monthly salary of $19. In Mexico,a factory worker with a steady job makes $19/day. In America, it's closer to $19/hour by comparison. In Cuba, doctors are at the top, earning $200/ a month. What luxury! Gotta love those Commies-they know how to keep things equal. What inequalities? "That's only in America."
The Prez also attended a memorial service for the Cuban patriot: Jose Marti'. Marti' is praised as the great poet of Cuba, and the great revolutionary force who died fighting for independence. His extensive writing, including both poetry and books, remains a symbolic guide for present day Cubanos. It is often said, there's something for everybody in his work.
After this visit, President Obama will get used to our allies in Europe dealing with yet another terrorist attack, this time in Belgium, the weak link in the EU chain.
The two executives watched a couple of innings, then split. Obama wanted to meet with local dissidents who wanted to tell him that despite his efforts, the arrests of protesters against the regime continues, with 2,200+ arrests so far this year. That comes on top of almost 8,000 arrests last year.
The weather was rainy yesterday, but today was better for the historic meeting. Some dissidents were able to express dissatisfaction with their monthly salary of $19. In Mexico,a factory worker with a steady job makes $19/day. In America, it's closer to $19/hour by comparison. In Cuba, doctors are at the top, earning $200/ a month. What luxury! Gotta love those Commies-they know how to keep things equal. What inequalities? "That's only in America."
The Prez also attended a memorial service for the Cuban patriot: Jose Marti'. Marti' is praised as the great poet of Cuba, and the great revolutionary force who died fighting for independence. His extensive writing, including both poetry and books, remains a symbolic guide for present day Cubanos. It is often said, there's something for everybody in his work.
After this visit, President Obama will get used to our allies in Europe dealing with yet another terrorist attack, this time in Belgium, the weak link in the EU chain.
Sunday, March 20, 2016
March Madness 2016
No, I'm not talking about skiing during the month. It's time for college hoops to wind down the season by playing tournaments to find the national champion. Lots of upsets so far. U. of California, at Berkeley-loser to U. of Hawaii-The Fighting Rainbows(?).
Lots of buzzer beaters-those last second shots that end the game and reward the shooter's team with a victory, snatched from the jaws of defeat. Read all about 'em manana as the roster for the Sweet 16 Lineup comes together. The NCAA loves March Madness- so much money in the till. How nice to support all those kids. But I mean scholar/ athletes; I mean student athletes; I mean students; I mean future NBA team players; I mean college dropouts; I mean disappointed has beens. What do I mean?
Lots of buzzer beaters-those last second shots that end the game and reward the shooter's team with a victory, snatched from the jaws of defeat. Read all about 'em manana as the roster for the Sweet 16 Lineup comes together. The NCAA loves March Madness- so much money in the till. How nice to support all those kids. But I mean scholar/ athletes; I mean student athletes; I mean students; I mean future NBA team players; I mean college dropouts; I mean disappointed has beens. What do I mean?
China Discovered to Have Violated Sanctions With Iran
Hmmmmm. Chinese businesses were discovered to have made extensive efforts to sell banned technology to Iran. One company's records indicated that other forms were also involved. One mentioned was tech giant Huawei. Hmmm. Was it greed? No, just Chinese being Chinese. Very simple. When in doubt, sell, answer questions later, beg forgiveness, pay fines, move on. No surprises here. Business as usual. Chinese business.
President Obama Cavorts With Commies
Well, of course it had to happen. Not too long ago, President Obama said he would reset relations with some of our neighbors, eg. the Island of Cuba. So, today, Mr. Obama became the first U.S. president to visit the island in 91 years. 91 years. When Calvin Coolidge was in the White House( Casa Blanca). He was going to have a State Dinner with Raul Castro, brother of the old revolutionary Commie, Brother Fidel, who can't make the dinner because he drools, farts, and otherwise makes an ass of himself due to dementia and other ills. (runs in family?)
Before the Prez arrived, Cuban authorities rounded up a few protesters who didn't get the word: no protests during the visit of the Northerner in Chief. Now we have this to look forward to: years of negotiations to unwind 50 years of economic isolation because the Castro Brothers forgot than communism was tried in other areas and failed miserably. Failed Miserably. Failed Miserably. failed Miserably. He visited with some undesirables: folks who are not happy with the Castro Regime and all its failures and human rights violations, and on and on and on. This is a "reset" ala Obama. 9 more months. Then..........
Before the Prez arrived, Cuban authorities rounded up a few protesters who didn't get the word: no protests during the visit of the Northerner in Chief. Now we have this to look forward to: years of negotiations to unwind 50 years of economic isolation because the Castro Brothers forgot than communism was tried in other areas and failed miserably. Failed Miserably. Failed Miserably. failed Miserably. He visited with some undesirables: folks who are not happy with the Castro Regime and all its failures and human rights violations, and on and on and on. This is a "reset" ala Obama. 9 more months. Then..........
Thursday, March 17, 2016
Bixby Bridge, Highway 1, California
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| Afternoon view of the Bixby Bridge, near Big Sur, California |
Sunday, March 13, 2016
Pat Conroy: R.I.P.
Noted American author, Pat Conroy, passed away at age 70, of pancreatic cancer. He was the author of iconic American novels: The Great Santini, The Prince of Tides, The Lords of Discipline, and Beach Music. Several were successfully translated to the big screen where they enjoyed even more success and acclaim.
He was raised in a military family that was often uprooted and relocated depending on his Dad's assignments. This lifestyle left an indelible mark on the young aspiring writer.
He was raised in a military family that was often uprooted and relocated depending on his Dad's assignments. This lifestyle left an indelible mark on the young aspiring writer.
Friday, March 11, 2016
Herman Wouk: at 100
Noted American writer/author Herman Wouk celebrated hhis 100th birthday this week. Congratulations, Mr. Wouk. The prize-winning author of, among others, The Caine Mutiny, resides in Palm Springs, alifornia where he has lived for over 30 years. The native born New Yorker loves the beauty of the barren hills and mountains, and especially enjoys the quiet of the outdoors life.
Thursday, March 10, 2016
South China Sea a New Chinese Lake
Chinese military units have begun patrolling the perimeter of their new naval airbase in the Paracels Islands, those built-up mud bumps way down south in the ocean known as the South China Sea. No doubt President Xi Jin Ping took the name literally, and has piled up enough sand to build a habitable space. The US Navy sent the aircraft carrier, John Stennis, and her escorts on a mission in the vicinity to ensure that China knows we know what she is up to, and also to demonstrate to our allies that we are available in the neighborhood.
And the Dalai Lama, leader -in-exile of Tibet, called on China to give back his country, stolen from them by Communists under Mao Zedong. Good luck with that request.
And the Dalai Lama, leader -in-exile of Tibet, called on China to give back his country, stolen from them by Communists under Mao Zedong. Good luck with that request.
Meldonium and Russyan Athletes
Somedays, it doesn't pay to get out of bed in the morning. Today is one of those days for Russyans. The flagship tart of Russyan sports, tennis star Maria Sharapova, was notified that she failed a drug test from the Tennis Federation. She was found to have evidence of Meldonium in her blood when a sample was given during a competition screening. The 29 -year old media darling stated on social media that she failed to read a letter sent to athletes that said the drug was now on the banned list. Apparently, her handlers thought that was a good response. Apparently, Maria thought it was a good response. Pinocchio thought it was a bad response.
Last year, athletes were notified that the Federation was considering a ban on Meldonium, a medication prescribed by cardiologists for patients with low blood flow to the heart muscle. Athletes who have been taking it use it as a performance enhancer, sort of like Viagra is a performance enhancer. If Maria had been taking Viagra, she would still be eligible to compete. She is not the only Russyan banned. Many others were also tripped up. Hmmmm. Won't they ever learn? Oh, they are Russyan: they do what they are told. Somethings never change.
Then, veteran hedge fund manager, Andy Kessler, calls out Mr. Putin. Calls him the financial bungler of the Kremlin. He sights many of the economic conditions that currently affect Russyan citizens: recessionary policies; low energy market prices; international sanctions caused by military forays in Crimea and Ukraine; criminal investigations pointing to Mr. Putin; Goldman Sachs refusal to take part in Russyan bond placements; and the devaluation of the rouble to record lows against the dollar. Pass the vodka, please. Will somebody get the vodka. I need some vodka, now. A large bottle, please. Very big headache.
Next thing you know, Syrian refugees will come calling.
Then, the coroner in Washington, D.C. issues a report that states that Russyan media oligarch, Mikhail Lesin, who was found dead in the Dupont Hotel, died of multiple blunt -force injuries. The 57-year old founder of RT, a Russyan house organ of kremlin propaganda, was a critic of his former boss Vlad. V. Putin. Oh, well. Just Russyans being Russyan. Better watch out Mr. Bashar al-Assad. Don't answer the midnight knock on your hotel room door: it's the FSB!
Anybody want to buy some oil? Natural gas? Caviar? Sable furs? How about a missile engine or two? And this is the largest country in the world? Really? Really.
Last year, athletes were notified that the Federation was considering a ban on Meldonium, a medication prescribed by cardiologists for patients with low blood flow to the heart muscle. Athletes who have been taking it use it as a performance enhancer, sort of like Viagra is a performance enhancer. If Maria had been taking Viagra, she would still be eligible to compete. She is not the only Russyan banned. Many others were also tripped up. Hmmmm. Won't they ever learn? Oh, they are Russyan: they do what they are told. Somethings never change.
Then, veteran hedge fund manager, Andy Kessler, calls out Mr. Putin. Calls him the financial bungler of the Kremlin. He sights many of the economic conditions that currently affect Russyan citizens: recessionary policies; low energy market prices; international sanctions caused by military forays in Crimea and Ukraine; criminal investigations pointing to Mr. Putin; Goldman Sachs refusal to take part in Russyan bond placements; and the devaluation of the rouble to record lows against the dollar. Pass the vodka, please. Will somebody get the vodka. I need some vodka, now. A large bottle, please. Very big headache.
Next thing you know, Syrian refugees will come calling.
Then, the coroner in Washington, D.C. issues a report that states that Russyan media oligarch, Mikhail Lesin, who was found dead in the Dupont Hotel, died of multiple blunt -force injuries. The 57-year old founder of RT, a Russyan house organ of kremlin propaganda, was a critic of his former boss Vlad. V. Putin. Oh, well. Just Russyans being Russyan. Better watch out Mr. Bashar al-Assad. Don't answer the midnight knock on your hotel room door: it's the FSB!
Anybody want to buy some oil? Natural gas? Caviar? Sable furs? How about a missile engine or two? And this is the largest country in the world? Really? Really.
Alexander Hamilton on Donald Trump
If I were disposed to promote Monarchy & overthrow the State governments, I would mount the hobby horse of popularity--- I would cry out usurpation--- danger to liberty &etc &etc---I would endeavor to prostrate the National Government--raise a ferment---and then "ride the Whirlwind and direct the storm."
From a letter to Virginia official Edward Carrington, May 26, 1792.
Monday, March 7, 2016
More Primary Voting This Tuesday
Idaho, Mississippi, and Hawaii, and Michigan voters go to the polls tomorrow. Seems there is a mounting campaign to derail Darn Old Trump. More republicans are recoiling at the prospect of his candidacy as the flag bearer for the GOP.
Mr. Trump, or Mr. Bluster, if you will, exudes confidence that exceeds his experience and lack of political depth. Where as his opponents come from different areas of the country, they all have him beat when it comes to experience. John Kasich, Governor of Ohio, has lengthy Congressional experience. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are both sitting senators. Party officials are maneuvering to assist those willing to confront Mr. trump now, before a convention and before he racks up even more delegates that are committed to him. Next week, on Tuesday the 15th, another big day for voters.
On March 15th, Illinois, (69 delegates), Ohio, (66 delegates), Missouri(52 delegates), North Carolina(72 delegates), and Florida(99 delegates) will be voting. Mr. Trump leads all candidates, many by double figures. 359 delegates could be assumed by Mr. Trump at the end of the day, almost doubling his current number. The clock is ticking and more people are shaking their heads, trying as best they can to absorb the events of this election cycle. Only time will tell.
Mr. Trump, or Mr. Bluster, if you will, exudes confidence that exceeds his experience and lack of political depth. Where as his opponents come from different areas of the country, they all have him beat when it comes to experience. John Kasich, Governor of Ohio, has lengthy Congressional experience. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are both sitting senators. Party officials are maneuvering to assist those willing to confront Mr. trump now, before a convention and before he racks up even more delegates that are committed to him. Next week, on Tuesday the 15th, another big day for voters.
On March 15th, Illinois, (69 delegates), Ohio, (66 delegates), Missouri(52 delegates), North Carolina(72 delegates), and Florida(99 delegates) will be voting. Mr. Trump leads all candidates, many by double figures. 359 delegates could be assumed by Mr. Trump at the end of the day, almost doubling his current number. The clock is ticking and more people are shaking their heads, trying as best they can to absorb the events of this election cycle. Only time will tell.
Cars. We Have Cars to Sell. Please Buy Cars
Such is the lament of the Russyan auto industry. This recent decline in domestic auto sales in Russya is another indicator of the ongoing recession caused by weak energy prices on which so much of Mad Vlad's economy is dependent. Investors in AvtoVAZ are very concerned about the decline in sales. Duh. Don't these investors read anything? Maybe they are TRUE Russyans: they believe what they are told by the Kremlin's house organs( RT, Rossyskaya, Moscow News, RBTH).
Let's compare auto sales in a few other nations:
Spain +20.9%
Units sold in Russya are 1.6 millions, or less than the amount sold in all of Italy's 1.7 millions. Clearly, there is a marketing problem heaped on top of weak demand, heaped on top of fear, heaped on top of unemployment, heaped on top of a chief executive who cannot figure out a solution. The CEO, Bo Andersson, is caught in a crossfire from top shareholders and weak markets for his products. What to do? Nissan and Renault own more than half the company and they are not happy about the state of the company. Will the oligarchs come calling? Certainly, they are circling this stricken fish, ready to bight off its "head", and take the company private as they have done with all those state -owned entities in the early 2000's. AvtoVAZ officials say they need a bailout. Hmmmm.
Maybe Renault and Nissan should call on Bob Dudley, current head of BP PLC. He was former head of a joint UK/Russyan venture until he was forced out by harassment and failure of the Kremlin to renew his work visa. Gotta love the Kremlinistas: they know how to deal with foreigners of all colors.
Who wants to buy a LADA car? Nobody, that's who. Lada sales are down 31% over last year. Mr. Andersson laid off 10's of thousands of workers and made new deals with suppliers. Still, it was not enough. Maybe Mr. Andersson should go to Ukraine or Crimea or Syria or Kamchatka to ask consumers why they aren't buying his product. Maybe it's a waste of time.
Welcome to Mr. Putin's version of 21st century Russya.ploughshares.org
Let's compare auto sales in a few other nations:
Spain +20.9%
- Italy +15.5
- France +6.8%
- UK +6.3%
- US +5.8%
- Germania 5.6%
Units sold in Russya are 1.6 millions, or less than the amount sold in all of Italy's 1.7 millions. Clearly, there is a marketing problem heaped on top of weak demand, heaped on top of fear, heaped on top of unemployment, heaped on top of a chief executive who cannot figure out a solution. The CEO, Bo Andersson, is caught in a crossfire from top shareholders and weak markets for his products. What to do? Nissan and Renault own more than half the company and they are not happy about the state of the company. Will the oligarchs come calling? Certainly, they are circling this stricken fish, ready to bight off its "head", and take the company private as they have done with all those state -owned entities in the early 2000's. AvtoVAZ officials say they need a bailout. Hmmmm.
Maybe Renault and Nissan should call on Bob Dudley, current head of BP PLC. He was former head of a joint UK/Russyan venture until he was forced out by harassment and failure of the Kremlin to renew his work visa. Gotta love the Kremlinistas: they know how to deal with foreigners of all colors.
Who wants to buy a LADA car? Nobody, that's who. Lada sales are down 31% over last year. Mr. Andersson laid off 10's of thousands of workers and made new deals with suppliers. Still, it was not enough. Maybe Mr. Andersson should go to Ukraine or Crimea or Syria or Kamchatka to ask consumers why they aren't buying his product. Maybe it's a waste of time.
Welcome to Mr. Putin's version of 21st century Russya.ploughshares.org
Sunday, March 6, 2016
Russyan Bears and Chinese Dragons
Well, now. Do we have a deal? I believe we do, given all the announcements, pronouncements, etc. Our Chinese 'friends', including the stoic, Xi JinPing, have announced a 'deal' with our other 'friends', the Russyans, headed up by the ever-stoic, Mad Vlad Putin. It's about energy: Russya has it; China needs it: now.
We also know that European nations were large consumers of Russyan oil and natural gas, which has flowed continuously to the European market for decades. But, then Mad Vlad became adventurous-in Crimea, then Ukraine, and now Syria(not to mention Georgia, Chechnya, Afghanistan). The West, lead by Obama, sanctioned the Little Fellow and his oligarch /KGB cronies, cutting off access to world capital markets, restricting trade, and otherwise stomping on the toes of expansionist Kremlin apparatchiks. With a worldwide recession expanding, Russya's own recession getting worse, and the value of the rouble in the loo, seems Russya needed a little boost in economic activity. Where to Go? Where to Go?
Where else but down south, to their Asia neighbor and former Communist brethren: China. "Let's make a deal", says the Kremlinistas. We have gas; you need gas. Shall we talk? Maybe we should use English, everybody else does. And who can decipher all those Chinese Mandarin characters? And you guys never had any interest in Cyrillic characters anyway. Deal?
So: lend us $2 billion. Got it. Bank of China to Gazprom(State-owned energy company which provides 10% of sovereign income). This is the largest loan secured by Gazprom ever. It points to Russya's ever-increasing need to go beyond its borders for capital, and underscores the effects of sanctions from the West.
This deal comes after China took a larger stake in a LNG project in the Arctic. This, too, has been highlighted by the decision by Washington on Wednesday to extend these sanctions against Russyan business(state business, really). Natalia Orlova, economist at Alfa Bank in Moskova, says the move proves that Russya can still gain access to capital despite the sanctions.
Yes, but Natalia, the deal is with the Chinese! It's dancing with the devil and you will lose this dance.
Last week, another Russyan company, OAO Novatek, announced a deal that includes financing for an LNG plant. Known as Yamal LNG, the plant will supply gas to Asia as soon as next year. The price of the gas has yet to be determined and Yamal is now in the position of one who will not have the leverage of the cross table party- Xi & Co. This according to Mikhail Krutikhin, a partner at RusEnergy consulting. Yamal is a partnership, and China already owns a 20% stake and France's ToTal owns 20%. The end result of this deal will not be pretty for the Russyan Bear. The Chinese Dragon, laughing smoke and flames from the toothy mouth, will take the Kremlin to the modern version of the Chinese laundry: the Silk Road Fund.
We also know that European nations were large consumers of Russyan oil and natural gas, which has flowed continuously to the European market for decades. But, then Mad Vlad became adventurous-in Crimea, then Ukraine, and now Syria(not to mention Georgia, Chechnya, Afghanistan). The West, lead by Obama, sanctioned the Little Fellow and his oligarch /KGB cronies, cutting off access to world capital markets, restricting trade, and otherwise stomping on the toes of expansionist Kremlin apparatchiks. With a worldwide recession expanding, Russya's own recession getting worse, and the value of the rouble in the loo, seems Russya needed a little boost in economic activity. Where to Go? Where to Go?
Where else but down south, to their Asia neighbor and former Communist brethren: China. "Let's make a deal", says the Kremlinistas. We have gas; you need gas. Shall we talk? Maybe we should use English, everybody else does. And who can decipher all those Chinese Mandarin characters? And you guys never had any interest in Cyrillic characters anyway. Deal?
So: lend us $2 billion. Got it. Bank of China to Gazprom(State-owned energy company which provides 10% of sovereign income). This is the largest loan secured by Gazprom ever. It points to Russya's ever-increasing need to go beyond its borders for capital, and underscores the effects of sanctions from the West.
This deal comes after China took a larger stake in a LNG project in the Arctic. This, too, has been highlighted by the decision by Washington on Wednesday to extend these sanctions against Russyan business(state business, really). Natalia Orlova, economist at Alfa Bank in Moskova, says the move proves that Russya can still gain access to capital despite the sanctions.
Yes, but Natalia, the deal is with the Chinese! It's dancing with the devil and you will lose this dance.
Last week, another Russyan company, OAO Novatek, announced a deal that includes financing for an LNG plant. Known as Yamal LNG, the plant will supply gas to Asia as soon as next year. The price of the gas has yet to be determined and Yamal is now in the position of one who will not have the leverage of the cross table party- Xi & Co. This according to Mikhail Krutikhin, a partner at RusEnergy consulting. Yamal is a partnership, and China already owns a 20% stake and France's ToTal owns 20%. The end result of this deal will not be pretty for the Russyan Bear. The Chinese Dragon, laughing smoke and flames from the toothy mouth, will take the Kremlin to the modern version of the Chinese laundry: the Silk Road Fund.
Saturday, March 5, 2016
Luis Ignacio Lula De Silva: Una Problemma
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| Former President of Brazil Speaking to Press last week after questioning |
Did the federal police who detained him have brown eyes or blue eyes? Did he rail against blue-eyed folks after his release or brown-eyed folks? The emotional tirade for the media upon his release seemed a bit out of place, but not out of character. He had broad support during his two terms as Brazil's president and benefitted from a rare period of economic expansion and relative stability. But, now his chickens are coming home to roost. The form of these "chickens" is the ongoing investigation into PetroBras, the state-owned oil/energy monolith. Arrests have already been made of executives of the company and also executives of construction companies involved in contracts with the company.
Many pundits believe this investigation will eventually ensnare sitting President Dilma Rousseff, De Silva's hand-picked successor. She may be impeached, given that many of her opponents are moving toward this strategy. Her popularity is at less than 10%-not so good.
Friday, March 4, 2016
Storm Warning and Advisories
NOAA has issued storm warnings for the entire Tahoe Basin region for this weekend, starting NOW.
This has been accompanied by a FLASHFLOOD warning for El Dorado County and Lake Tahoe.
Advice from Tahoma: stay home. Be prepared for power interruptions throughout the weekend. Residents with special needs of any type should be ready to endure harsh weather conditions to include high winds, heavy rain and snow accumulation along Highway 89; Highway 50, and Highway 80. All travel should be curtailed unless an emergency. Medical assistance will generally be unavailable during periods of storm conditions.
Get the Message?
Pay attention, you.
This has been accompanied by a FLASHFLOOD warning for El Dorado County and Lake Tahoe.
Advice from Tahoma: stay home. Be prepared for power interruptions throughout the weekend. Residents with special needs of any type should be ready to endure harsh weather conditions to include high winds, heavy rain and snow accumulation along Highway 89; Highway 50, and Highway 80. All travel should be curtailed unless an emergency. Medical assistance will generally be unavailable during periods of storm conditions.
Get the Message?
Pay attention, you.
Thursday, March 3, 2016
HSBC Bank: Trouble, Again
Just when you thought it was safe to get back into the water......the banking industry, that is. So, HSBC, the very large British bank headquartered in London, has been rapped with significant fines, and has come under more scrutiny for-horror of horrors- Money Laundering! Can it be true? Well, we know that Iran has been financially and economically crippled by sanctions imposed on it by the West, ie. the US and the ECB, and others. We know that temptation exists in banking, with all that money floating in and out of deposits, loans, and credit cards. So much money that it seems a shame not to take a little. A little here, a little there, and maybe just a little more.
HSBC bank reached a settlement with the Dept. of Justice and paid $1.9 billion because they violated sanctions against Libya, Iran, and Sudan. HSBC admitted it failed to catch at least $881 millions of drug-trafficking proceeds laundered in its US bank and its staff stripped data from those transactions to evade those same sanctions. Now a private client has entered the fray and a Judge in the case, Judge John Gleeson, deemed a letter written to the court is, in fact, a legitimate request to unseal the confidential agreement that includes terms and conditions of the settlement. Both the Justice dept. and the Bank oppose the unsealing and have asked that the request be denied. It could be some months before another decision is reached.
Meanwhile, stay out of the banking waters, especially if those banks had big loans in the oil and gas industry.
HSBC bank reached a settlement with the Dept. of Justice and paid $1.9 billion because they violated sanctions against Libya, Iran, and Sudan. HSBC admitted it failed to catch at least $881 millions of drug-trafficking proceeds laundered in its US bank and its staff stripped data from those transactions to evade those same sanctions. Now a private client has entered the fray and a Judge in the case, Judge John Gleeson, deemed a letter written to the court is, in fact, a legitimate request to unseal the confidential agreement that includes terms and conditions of the settlement. Both the Justice dept. and the Bank oppose the unsealing and have asked that the request be denied. It could be some months before another decision is reached.
Meanwhile, stay out of the banking waters, especially if those banks had big loans in the oil and gas industry.
Minister of Latin American Affairs Helps Out
Our Minister came through with a timely list of points that could be included in any message from the Dept. of State to Brazilians in business and education during these trying times for the country of Brazil. With the political landscape of the country in upheaval, a diplomat must be cautious in his choice of topics and his choice of words. Just yesterday, Sec. of State John Kerry was asked by a reporter his opinion of Darn Old Trump's success in primary elections to date. He carefully pointed out that he is above politics; he is interested in diplomacy. Well done, Mr. Secretary. It is a comfort to know that Tahoma's own can be of use to the country so far from home.
Gli Italiani, Berlusconi, and Darn Old Trump
So, can Mr. Trump maintain momentum? Can he buy the presidency? Let's look at a few comparisons between Mr. Trump and Mr. Berlusconi, Italia's former premier. Both men are billionaires, amassing personal fortunes by way of shrewd business sense, good timing, luck, and an ability to negotiate to get what one wants from any deal.
Most importantly, both men know the importance of media manipulation. Mr. Berlusconi established his empire in media, controlling television channels across the Italian landscape, generating fabulous amounts of advertising income for his company, funding his expansion into other related businesses. As an owner, Mr. B was able to control content and satisfy the public's taste, whatever they happen to be at the moment. Mr. Trump was educated in finance and understood the importance of partnerships and contracts when it came to developing real estate and hotels across the country. He also understood the importance of manipulating bankruptcy law to his benefit, especially when certain unforeseen economic conditions soured an investment. He also understood branding, selling his "Trump" brand as any other asset. As his experience increased, he realized, as does Mr. Berlusconi, that personal exposure, properly managed, can affect overall business success. hence, he became a TV personality, the face of the show, The Apprentice.
Then the two realized the benefits of marrying entertainment with politics; a natural progression. Mr. Trump is taking this marriage to new heights. Mr. Berlusconi had problems here, suffering the indignity of prosecution and conviction for a variety of civil criminal acts while in office. Mr. Trump assumes that he can buy his way into the White House, a few billion here, a few billion there, and, voila, the Oval Office is his! He then moves the country in the direction he wants, the direction of the Trump Brand, no less. The media in the USA has fallen victim to his manipulation. Using the bully pulpit, he has been able to receive astonishing media coverage- free of charge. Say outrageous things- see it in print; see it on social media, see it everywhere. Pander to the populist sentiment, bring out the fears of the middle class: lack of jobs and opportunities and an ineffective, tone-deaf Federal government.
Another area that provides endless topics of interest are the personal foibles of both men. With all their funds, they can party hardy. In Italia, it's Bunga-bunga parties complete with young women eager to share the limelight with the rich and famous. Mr. Trump is identical in this field. married three times, he makes no apologies for his indiscretions nor his appetite for excess when it comes to young, beautiful women who flock about him like bees to honey.
Most importantly, both men know the importance of media manipulation. Mr. Berlusconi established his empire in media, controlling television channels across the Italian landscape, generating fabulous amounts of advertising income for his company, funding his expansion into other related businesses. As an owner, Mr. B was able to control content and satisfy the public's taste, whatever they happen to be at the moment. Mr. Trump was educated in finance and understood the importance of partnerships and contracts when it came to developing real estate and hotels across the country. He also understood the importance of manipulating bankruptcy law to his benefit, especially when certain unforeseen economic conditions soured an investment. He also understood branding, selling his "Trump" brand as any other asset. As his experience increased, he realized, as does Mr. Berlusconi, that personal exposure, properly managed, can affect overall business success. hence, he became a TV personality, the face of the show, The Apprentice.
Then the two realized the benefits of marrying entertainment with politics; a natural progression. Mr. Trump is taking this marriage to new heights. Mr. Berlusconi had problems here, suffering the indignity of prosecution and conviction for a variety of civil criminal acts while in office. Mr. Trump assumes that he can buy his way into the White House, a few billion here, a few billion there, and, voila, the Oval Office is his! He then moves the country in the direction he wants, the direction of the Trump Brand, no less. The media in the USA has fallen victim to his manipulation. Using the bully pulpit, he has been able to receive astonishing media coverage- free of charge. Say outrageous things- see it in print; see it on social media, see it everywhere. Pander to the populist sentiment, bring out the fears of the middle class: lack of jobs and opportunities and an ineffective, tone-deaf Federal government.
Another area that provides endless topics of interest are the personal foibles of both men. With all their funds, they can party hardy. In Italia, it's Bunga-bunga parties complete with young women eager to share the limelight with the rich and famous. Mr. Trump is identical in this field. married three times, he makes no apologies for his indiscretions nor his appetite for excess when it comes to young, beautiful women who flock about him like bees to honey.
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| Trump, Cruz, and Rubio: Look at that Darn Old Face |
Wednesday, March 2, 2016
Luis Ignacio Lula De Silva , former Brazilian President.
Remember the high flying former Union boss who seemed to be the 'new' face of Brazil? Yes, the man known as Lula. He's accused of graft and corruption because of his abuse of power. Maybe he thought he was immune. Maybe he thought Pres. Dilma Rousseff would shield him from probes regarding his relations with Petrobras.
Hey, Old Brown Eyes: you can run, but you can't hide. We are coming to get you. Your days as a free man are coming to an end. Get used to the idea of being poor; of being disrespected, of being an object of scorn. In essence, of being an elite in Brazil. How sad.
Hey, Old Brown Eyes: you can run, but you can't hide. We are coming to get you. Your days as a free man are coming to an end. Get used to the idea of being poor; of being disrespected, of being an object of scorn. In essence, of being an elite in Brazil. How sad.
China Steel
Well, finally, the Obama Administration acted on behalf of American workers. The Commerce Department imposed tariffs on Chinese steel being exported to the US. The increase was a 296% increase over the cost as listed by the exporter. After steel companies in the US have been laying people off and suffering losses for several years, it is a bit late. No doubt it comes after much discussion. But it coincides with the aggressive Chinese moves in the South China Sea where they have been making islands on top of wash rocks. They have also been constructing airfields on these sites, and claiming that these outposts are Chinese territory. What gall!
And Premier Xi Jin Ping is running an anti corruption campaign at home. Look in the mirror, Fat Boy. And China also issued a new attitude toward their friends in North Korea. Yes, that North KOrea, where workers are paid in promises. N. Korean coal goes to China. The "wages" in turn, go to Peiping/Beijing. The workers get salt.
Maybe some workers in the US will benefit from the move against China. Doubt it.
And Premier Xi Jin Ping is running an anti corruption campaign at home. Look in the mirror, Fat Boy. And China also issued a new attitude toward their friends in North Korea. Yes, that North KOrea, where workers are paid in promises. N. Korean coal goes to China. The "wages" in turn, go to Peiping/Beijing. The workers get salt.
Maybe some workers in the US will benefit from the move against China. Doubt it.
Tim Cook, Apple, The F.B.I., and Ash Carter
So, the F.B.I. wants your iphone. Rather, it wants access to your iphone. And its contents. Your personal information. Oh, they said only one phone, used by the murderous duo, the Farooks. Why are governments so predictable.? Maybe the N.S.A. should tell Mr. Comey that they already have all they need from all the communications of the murderers. Oh, the F.B.I. doesn't really care about the iphone from San Bernardino County used by the duo. They just want unlimited back door access-to ALL phones. Hmmmmm. Do I smell a fascist here? A dirty rotten Fascist?
And, then, Ash Carter, US Secretary of Defense says that we need better protection from cyber criminals. The US has to act to close all avenues of cyber attacks. More encryption, less access. Ok. The Dept. of Defense and the F.B.I. have different missions; but, they play for the same team. And Tim Cook of Apple has been saying just that: more encryption is good; less is worse. Backdoor access is bad.
Where's the leadership here? Hmmmm. It's an election year and the country is definitely confused. Ask Darn Old what he thinks. On second thought, forget it.
Note
Dr. Ben Carson, Republican, has dropped out of the race for the presidential nomination. He didn't catch fire.
And, then, Ash Carter, US Secretary of Defense says that we need better protection from cyber criminals. The US has to act to close all avenues of cyber attacks. More encryption, less access. Ok. The Dept. of Defense and the F.B.I. have different missions; but, they play for the same team. And Tim Cook of Apple has been saying just that: more encryption is good; less is worse. Backdoor access is bad.
Where's the leadership here? Hmmmm. It's an election year and the country is definitely confused. Ask Darn Old what he thinks. On second thought, forget it.
Note
Dr. Ben Carson, Republican, has dropped out of the race for the presidential nomination. He didn't catch fire.
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Super Tuesday: Ready, Set, Vote
Now is the time we separate wheat from chaff. Voters of many stripes will go to the polls in primaries across 12 states, with Texas being the largest, of course, and with the largest number of delegates up for grabs. It's do-or-die for some of the bunch: Ted Cruz must win big in his home state; Marco Rubio has to show good results, too, or his campaign will stumble and fall. Darn Old Trump must keep the ball rolling and provoke some moderates to vote for him; John Kasick and Ben carson will probably be finished when the day is done.
Hillary is off in other areas, Massachusetts exactly, to counter Bernie Sanders' efforts in his home state of Vermont. The Republican Party is in great turmoil because of the obvious split among its members: Trump v. the Rest.
Some GOP congressmen have stated they will not support candidate Trump in the general election. Some have spoken out against him because of a lack of statements repudiating the KKK. Next week there are several more state primaries and these will serve to cement the positions of front runners, and cause the rest to rethink their time and investment as candidates.
Watch the fun on TV or the Internet-it's all there.
Weather watch:
Snow in the forecast-wheeeeeeee.
Hillary is off in other areas, Massachusetts exactly, to counter Bernie Sanders' efforts in his home state of Vermont. The Republican Party is in great turmoil because of the obvious split among its members: Trump v. the Rest.
Some GOP congressmen have stated they will not support candidate Trump in the general election. Some have spoken out against him because of a lack of statements repudiating the KKK. Next week there are several more state primaries and these will serve to cement the positions of front runners, and cause the rest to rethink their time and investment as candidates.
Watch the fun on TV or the Internet-it's all there.
Weather watch:
Snow in the forecast-wheeeeeeee.
Rumsey: Part II
The diversity of California's geography is well known. As a student of geography for many years, the Mayor is well-acquainted with this diversity. From the coast to the eastern borders shared with Nevada and Arizona, any drawn line will traverse a zone of agricultural effort. West of Highway 5, west of Sacramento, Highway 20/Highway 16 follows minor rift zones, providing access to pockets of intense farming where orchard crops cover fields that border Cache Creek.
With adequate water, a long growing season with high summer temps, these fertile fields provide a bounty of crops. Olives and almonds dominate here. The fields are already being plowed and disked in preparation for planting. Old trees are being pulled and their replacements are in the ground in some places.
So, Rumsey. We walked into the community center to witness a great American scene: local farmers and ranchers socializing among weekend visitors, checking out the locally -grown products offered by their friends and neighbors. Bottled olive oil of many varieties covered small tables where the grower sat with a broad smile, welcoming the shoppers. At one table, the Mayor found a familiar face: former Congressman Pete McCloskey. With a full head of white hair, a twinkle in his eye, and rosy cheeks, he was instantly recognizable. Besides his own olive oil and pecans for sale, he also had copies of his memoirs: A Year in a Marine Rifle Company: Korea, 1950-51.
This book tells his story as a lieutenant of Marines during a vicious war in Asia often called the "Forgotten War". This war is another that is hardly 'forgotten' by those who participated in combat and were able to survive. Pete McCloskey was one of the heroes of that war. He was awarded the Navy Cross, the Silver Star, and 2 Purple Hearts for heroic leadership during the early months of the war after Gen Douglas MacArthur put the Marines ashore at Inchon in one of the great tactical moves of the conflict, encircling the North Korean invaders from their flank and liberating the city of Seoul.
After the war, he returned to California, got a law degree from Stanford and began the practice of law in what is now Silicon Valley. He spent 15 years in Congress during which he championed many environmental causes as a Republican. (He is now a Democrat, ret.). He and his wife, Helen, live part time in Rumsey, and part time in Santa Fe, New Mexico. Their son, Peter, is a lawyer working for the International Court of Justice in the Hague where he has prosecuted war criminals(eg. Kosovo leaders), and investigates war crimes.
Pete and I talked for awhile and I listened to a number of quick stories he was willing and happy to relate. His wife, Helen, had a few of her own. It was a most enjoyable encounter with a great American hero.
With adequate water, a long growing season with high summer temps, these fertile fields provide a bounty of crops. Olives and almonds dominate here. The fields are already being plowed and disked in preparation for planting. Old trees are being pulled and their replacements are in the ground in some places.
So, Rumsey. We walked into the community center to witness a great American scene: local farmers and ranchers socializing among weekend visitors, checking out the locally -grown products offered by their friends and neighbors. Bottled olive oil of many varieties covered small tables where the grower sat with a broad smile, welcoming the shoppers. At one table, the Mayor found a familiar face: former Congressman Pete McCloskey. With a full head of white hair, a twinkle in his eye, and rosy cheeks, he was instantly recognizable. Besides his own olive oil and pecans for sale, he also had copies of his memoirs: A Year in a Marine Rifle Company: Korea, 1950-51.
This book tells his story as a lieutenant of Marines during a vicious war in Asia often called the "Forgotten War". This war is another that is hardly 'forgotten' by those who participated in combat and were able to survive. Pete McCloskey was one of the heroes of that war. He was awarded the Navy Cross, the Silver Star, and 2 Purple Hearts for heroic leadership during the early months of the war after Gen Douglas MacArthur put the Marines ashore at Inchon in one of the great tactical moves of the conflict, encircling the North Korean invaders from their flank and liberating the city of Seoul.
After the war, he returned to California, got a law degree from Stanford and began the practice of law in what is now Silicon Valley. He spent 15 years in Congress during which he championed many environmental causes as a Republican. (He is now a Democrat, ret.). He and his wife, Helen, live part time in Rumsey, and part time in Santa Fe, New Mexico. Their son, Peter, is a lawyer working for the International Court of Justice in the Hague where he has prosecuted war criminals(eg. Kosovo leaders), and investigates war crimes.
Pete and I talked for awhile and I listened to a number of quick stories he was willing and happy to relate. His wife, Helen, had a few of her own. It was a most enjoyable encounter with a great American hero.
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