Friday, March 15, 2019

Italy: Up Against It-Again

       Well, the Italian economy is continuing its slide into big trouble.  The numbers provided to the EU  Central Bank indicate that the possibility of growth is extremely remote.  The Parliament cannot figure out how to shake up the country's moribund growth.  Nothing seems to have come out as planned.   All the speculation surrounding Italy's myriad problems indicate that none of the political parties running the government can make sense of what's happening, much less come up with plans for improvements.
      Let's do the numbers:
GDP % chg from a year ago  +0.7
Consumer prices  1.1 Dec.
Unemployment     10.5%
Current Acct Bal     2.6
Budget Bal(%of GDP)-1.9

Interest rates  10yr Gov bds  2.6  chg a yr ago, bp   57.0
Euro currency chg f. yr ago   -8.0

MARKETS
FTSE/MIB    -9.5 from 12/29/17
      Figures released indicate Italy slipped into recession in second half of 2018.  Not soooo gooood.  The economy shrank in the  final quarter of 2018.   Italy's government is perplexed:  they are confronted by pressure from the ECB and Euro zone economic rules.   Even Greece, recently the bad boy of the South EU Zone, exceeded the growth rate of Italy.  Italy's economy is much greater than little Greece, but apparently, bigger is not better.

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