Thursday, November 29, 2018

Oil Price Slides as G-20 Conference set to Open in Argentina

      Well, no doubt the price of oil and its slide to lowest levels in 8 years will dominate discussions in Buenos Aries, Argentina.  The G-20 members will need to alter their speeches and their predictions for the next 12 months or so.  Nobody can predict the future with any accuracy, but these folks don't adhere to this reality.  They sleep better when their rosy predictions are made for the media to digest, which will then be distributed to the masses for immediate consumption.
     Russya will have to hone the numbers for its economy.  While not in free fall yet, the ruble has been battered relentlessly during 2018.   Much of this is due to sanctions imposed by the US and its Allies in Western Europe.  However, combined with this weeks Russyan Navy actions in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, the price of oil slide could disrupt plans of the Kremlin and Mr. Putin in particular.  Perhaps Mr. Putin will cozy up more closely with XiJP?  Maybe not.  Perhaps he'll cozy up with Mr. Assad in Syria and talk about continuing support for the government that kills its own citizens.  Mr. Trump will not meet with Mr. Putin during the conference.  His National Security staff advised against such a meeting.  The issue of further sanctions will include banishing Russya from the SWIFT banking protocol of international settlements.  This economic tool benefits all members with international transactions between banks.  Closing this venue to Russyan finances will cripple all business activity in Russya.   Perhaps when the population feels the sting of this whip, they might ask Mad Vlad to curtail is ill-advised adventurism down south.  Ha, that blockhead doesn't listen to anybody, only his KGB gut.  Too bad for the little guy in Vladivostok trying to put food on the table.
      Life in Argentina will be exposed somewhat during the conference.  Much of this country's domestic economy is in a shamble.  Continued decline in GDP has placed significant  challenges to locals.  The peso has dropped in value against the dollar all year.   While not as bad as Venezuela,  Argentina and the people suffer.   Maybe Mr. Trump will direct his peole to open a few new hotels on the River Plate.
       Speaking of River, the football team, things got ugly down there last week.  A contest between River and its neighbor, the BOCA Juniors was cancelled due to violence among fans waiting at River's home stadium.  Sadly, the fans who met the team bus of the Juniors decided that assaulting the bus was a good strategy.  It backfired.  After some fans rushed the turnstiles, others pelted the bus with rocks and bottles.  Several players were injured and taken to hospital.  Football officials cancelled the game.   A sad testimony to local policing and local governing;  not cool Argentina.
Need oil? Need SWIFT?

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