Saturday, March 21, 2015

The Economy: Part II

    The Price of Oil
      The price of oil remains as one of the global economy's worst enemy: as the price goes, so goes a country's economy.  What's happening?  Glut, glut, and more glut.  The USA, now a net surplus producer is pumping more oil than ever, and is running out of storage space.  Should Pres. Obama open the exit door, US producers could flood the international market place and eliminate OPEC producers as a factor in pricing(which has already occurred w/o US entry).  Brent crude, or North Sea oil price, has just about been declared officially dead.  Now, it's West Texas oil, sweet oil, that appears to be the new benchmark, and that figure continues to slide south(down here in US).   As the number goes below $44/barrel of crude, consumers rejoice at the gas pump.  However, there seems to be an anomaly in California.  After nipping the $2/gal. price point only a month ago, prices have roared back to $3.50/gal.  What gives?  Nobody can accurately assess who is responsible for this run up.  Reports of refinery seasonal shutdowns are heard; a fire at another refinery is noted; future prices are bid up by speculators; State tax watchdogs want more sales tax revenues and goaded producers; Kermit the frog bought a TESLA; Donald Duck bought a Prius; Tom Brady bought another house; Benedict Cumberbatch was seen on a bicycle.  All contributed to California's gas price run up.
   The Euro Exchange Rate
      Yes, Lake Tahoe residents must follow the dollar/Euro exchange rate.  How many European tourists will show up on the shores of our local lake?  It's important.  As the Euro slides against the dollar and nears parity, there is much hand wringing going on.  US tourists drool over the cost of a European vacation.  American exporters whimper over the loss of potential customers who now will pay more for their goods.   Euro zone manufacturers smile as the US market becomes an attractive marketplace, again.  European tourists cry because they will have to go to Crimean beaches ƒor vacation instead of the Jersey Shore or the Catskills of New York.  And we know about Crimea: FSB operatives from Moscova lurking about, seizing assets and businesses, explaining that Mad Vlad ordered as much and he MUST be obeyed or everybody is dead.   Swiss bankers, running scared, are cautious, moving discreetly about in financial markets, attempting to stay under the radar of the IRS and the US Justice Dept.
     Greek Yogurt
    More problems are surfacing down south on the Med border lands, specifically Greece.   The yield on Greek 2017 bond has risen above  22%.  Greek bank share prices are at their lowest levels since the crisis began in 2009.  A mini bank run was reported on Wednesday.   Emergency funding is in place but time does appear to be on the side of Greece. Or Mr. Tsipras, the PM.
   War Drums
      Mr. Netanyahu was reelected in Israel as PM, his 4th term.  This confirmed his position as a hard liner against Palestine, Gaza, Hamas, and regional opposition in general.  Pres. Obama had his contingencies in place, but still has to negotiate with "Bebe".
     The ceasefire in Ukraine is hardly complete, as Russya maintains pressure on Kiev.  Reports out of Crimea indicate a stormy takeover in progress, and the Donbass region of Ukraine is still in a state of flux.  Compounding the regional issue is the arrest of 5 Chechens connected to the murder of former vice president Nemtsov in Moscova 2 weeks ago.  Mad Vlad's public support of the new Chechen dictator, the 39 year punk, does not bode well for peace and tranquility in that area.
     A recent suicide bombing in Yemen and Tunis indicate continued violence across the Arab world, never healthy for any economy.

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