Dr. Kissinger on the Middle East

   Dr. Henry Kissinger, the former Secretary of State and national Security Adviser wrote a long piece in the Wall Street Journal yesterday. wsjournal.com.  Dr. Kissinger, the WW II veteran, author, professor, and elder statesman, has put together one of the most insightful pieces that analyzes the multi-faceted conflict raging across the Middle East landscape.  The mosaic of the region includes nation states, occupied and contested areas, ethnic cross border regions, and areas of confrontation and contests.
     His ability to pinpoint participants and their roles is superb.   Whether in Syria, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Lebanon, or Afghanistan, he identifies the peculiar problems in those countries.  He also describes the likely outcome of Russya's  new role as an active supporter of the Assad regime in Syria and how it will alter the dynamic.  Here we have the US supporting Syria rebels and their attempt to overthrow Assad, and Russyans supporting Assad against this group.  In addition, I.S.I.S., the 3rd party in the regional turmoil, is in conflict with all other parties on the ground, including Kurds and members of the Turkish military.   It's not a pretty picture.
      The Islamic religious element over region does not foster amicable relations, but instead, seeds the roots of ongoing conflict.  Dr. Kissinger understands this as well.  He is able to see a path to multiple solutions that could help to stabilize the area, and to perhaps reduce the numbers of migrants fleeing the conflict zones.  these are the migrants flooding the western European shores, streaming north and west to seek shelter and safety they are unable to find at home.  Dr. Kissinger advises a number of priorities that we need to establish on the road to peace and stability:
the destruction of ISIS is the No. 1 priority,
ISIS controlled territory must be reconquered and Russya must limit its military role to avoid a return to the Cold war with the US;
reconquered territories must be restored to the local Sunni rule that existed there before  the disintegration of both Iraqi and Syrian sovereignty.  Egypt and Jordan should also play a role in that evolution;  Turkey can also contribute to the process;
as terrorist controlled areas are brought under state control, the future of Syria should be concurrently addressed and an exit path for Assad be opened;
   the US should provide military assurances in the traditional Sunni states that the administration promised during the Iranian nuclear agreement;
in this context, the role of Iran is critical.  Dialogue with Iran returning to its role as a Westphalian state within its established borders.
      According to Dr. Kissinger, the US must decide for itself the role it will play in the Middle East, and it could be the most severe test and most immediate.