Thursday, October 9, 2014

The Turks: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

      When two of your neighbors are Syria and Iraq, one must sleep with one eye open, if not both.   If Kurdistan(an unofficial 'Stan) is included within your boundaries, one has a continuing irritation that requires attention.   If one has a stream of refugees crossing the southern border fleeing an onslaught by murderous fanatics, the problem cannot be overlooked.   What to do?
     Pres. Erdogan of Turkey must navigate the political landscape of his own country as he tries to negotiate with the minority Kurds who have been restive for over 40 long years.  One the one hand, he would not want to recognize their, the Kurds, autonomy.  On the other, he doesn't want ISIS, the murderers, running across his borders necessitating a military confrontation that will absorb manpower and resources of significant proportions.  What has been suggested is a controlled zone of neutral status, free of combat, where refugees can live until the conflict is resolved.   This may be wishful thinking in light of ISIS goal of forced recognition(see YouTube videos of their murders of innocent victims).
     ISIS now occupies Mosul, in northern Iraq.   They are threatening a border city in Syria that the Kurds are trying to hold onto.  The outcome is being contested as we speak.   The international community is not ready to consent to Turkey's demands for a unified response, using the US' request for action as a non-starter.   The EU recognizes Turkey's reticence, but seeks support from Ankara in its fight with ISIS, if only to prevent the spread of this pirate group that has alienated just about everybody in the Middle East.
     Let's keep our eyes on Mr. Erdogan and his action plan.  He knows he has the focus of the world on himself.   What will he do next?  Not a lot of options these days.

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