End of 2019 : Where Do We Stand

       The last day of the year, unlike the first day, the last day is a day of wraps, endings, and a few reflections on what has passed.  The price of an ounce of gold stood at $1513/oz.; Silver:$17.90/0z.
Breakout metal Palladium is $1911/oz; Platinum @$955/oz.
     For certain asset classes, things varied:
S&P 500 Tot. return +31%
Stoxx Europe            +29%
Gold                          +18%
7-10 Yr. U.S. Treas   +6%
Art                              +5%
1-3 Yr Treas                +1%
 Fancy color diamonds -1%
Fine Wine                      -4%
Classic Cars                  -6%
          
          If you had left your money in an index fund of US stocks, you may have gained upwards of 20% ON THE YEAR.  Not to shabby.   The NASDAQ was up almost 38% on the year.  Forecasters for 2020 are more cautious: maybe 5-6% on the year.  Or average, really.
      But what is really what we're watching in 2020.  Gerald Seib, the talented journalist who covers the Washington, DC area says these 4 areas bear watching;
Hong Kong and its protestors - it cannot continue without achieving a breaking point.  Pres. Xi will get to a point that a decision must be made- more or less autonomy for the autonomous area.  In light of the over all slowdown in China; the continuing unrest in the far west Uighur Territory, and US sanctions/tariffs, and Tibet, and Taiwan, and India, and North Korea.
      North Korea
       What will be done about its weapons development programs including the aggressive launching of missiles in the nearby seas?
        Iran's Economy
        The IMF says the economy will shrink9.5% this year while inflation is running at 35.7%.   Think about that figure-35.7%.  Now that's something that concerns everybody in the Middle East.
       the U.K. Brexit
     Will the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, be able to pull out of the EU on good terms or will he bolt now that he has the backing of the Parliament?  There are innumerable pitfalls along the road to BREXIT, any of which could bring down the curtain on the UK and the EU itself.

      So get ready for 2020.   Be safe on the return home tomorrow, could be some ice and snow out there.

49ers Hold On for Win

      The Seahawks came to play and they almost pulled off another 4th quarter come-from-behind win.  But the 'Niner defense, combined with a Seattle clock error, provided a league title for San Francisco, and, more importantly, a bye weekend in the playoffs.
     The game started well for the City boys.  9 plays and they scored in the first qtr.  Then, they scored again, adding a field goal, 10-0.  Late in the 2nd qtr, another field goal, 13-0.  Hmmm. Was it over for the 'Hawks? Not quite.  In the 2nd half, they came out to play.  Soon, it was 13-7; then 20-14; then, 23-21.  Then 26-21, and the Hawks were on the move.  They had 1st and goal at the 2 yd line of the City boys.  A winning TD looked likely.  With 9 seconds to go, The local QB threw a pass which was caught mere inches from the goal line.  The 49ers took over on the 1" line.  Jimmie Garappolo kept the ball and pushed forward and the game ended.  Home town fans were disappointed by a lot.
They could meet again soon.

Final Football Weekend: 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks

     This could be the game that previews the playoffs.  Two great quarterbacks facing off in a regular season finale.  Game starts at 5pm, west coast time.  Be there.

Snow in Forecast

      Well, all the skiers are tired, ready for a little rest.  It will start snowing again late today and overnight-maybe 1"-3" of new powder.  That's just enough to entice a few folks to wait for another chance to carve trails on the slopes.  Most grooming will be postponed unless more than 6" fall on the runs.  So, tomorrow, wax up with powder wax, enjoy the 'tween season of the New Years/ Christmas vaca.

A Bridge Over Troubled Waters: Crimea

on the road again

I support Trump

       Well, now.  The Russyan spinners released fotos of a newly built bridge.  The bridge connects the European landmass to the Crimean peninsula and will facilitate vehicle traffic to the southern portion of the area.  In announcing such a project, the Kremlin is telling the West and others that there will be no pulling back from the occupation of Ukrainian sovereign territory.  The bridge looks like a hold over from the Soviet era: bulky, heavy, solid, brutish, and durable.  Some architects think this style is making a well deserved comeback; others would like to smother the style in the crib.  It recalls a style commonly used by Russyan engineers when dispatched abroad to assist the building of infrastructure projects around the world.  Many were built in Vietnam after the American War ended in 1975.  Many were built in Cuba, a satellite of Soviet era COMINTERN.

Holiday Bonanza:The Last Days of 2019

      So, here we are: in between Christmas and New Years'.  That time when folks are here or wish they were here.  The weather, simply put, has been great.  It has allowed those who wish to partake of the mountains to travel unhindered of cables and chains, without the anxiety of a possible snow dumping; and all the possibilities of an extended good time on the slopes.
     So, no excuses: get out there and have some real fun.  Forget about the White House, forget about the "I" word.  Forget about Bernie, Pete, Mike, Tom, and what's her face.  Iowa is a long way away.  Ski, ski, and ski some more.

different this year

last year after New Years

Resorts Praise Weather

      All of Tahoe is basking in ideal weather conditions: lots of snow, good access for all visitors, prospects for continuing nice conditions, and a prosperous economy.
Get ready for the New Year with its two 2's and 2 zeros.

Tahoe Views 2019

Tahoe Clouds

Lake Dreams

Alpine Lake

Brits Take to Polls Wednesday

   In what is touted as the most important election in decades, voters will have a chance tomorrow to right the ship of state in the U.K. by electing a Prime Minister and party officials who will decide what the future of Brexit will be: in or out of the EU.
    The choice is between Boris Johnson's Conservative Party or jeremy Corbyn's Labor Party.  Opinion polls indicate Johnson has a slim lead as of today. However, many voters will change their minds tonight, for one reason or another.  Many say the fate of the nation hangs in the balance.  Well, that might be a stretch, but the future financial stability might hang in the balance.  Nobody wants to think of an unsettled future; nobody wants mystery and doubt to cloud their future.  The Brits want some comfort; they want stability at home; they want the government to make a good result after over 3 years of wallowing in uncertainty and adversity.   How can this nation tolerate these boobs who are in Parliament?  Poor Theresa May, she had to endure the insults thrown her way from these louts who couldn't make up their collective minds to make any decisions.  Now Bo Jo will have a shot, but his goal is BREXIT by January.
      Voters are walking to the polls right now; look for results in the morning paper or if you are a media follower on the internet, look for results sooner.
     The whole world is watching from the galleries.

Highway 89 Round Abouts Impress

Last days of autumn 2019-Nice!

      The Mayor visited Tahoe City this afternoon after reports of nice weather turned out to be true.  It's been awhile.  So, the experience of circling the new round-abouts was fun.  With almost no snow on the highway, conditions were perfect to do a few complete 360's around the center areas of each.  Unfortunately, the paved over sections only afford motorists 1 lane to make the turn.  What?  Why not two lanes as in Truckee?  Too much money?  Too cheap? Oh, well, it's CalTrans, after all.
     But at least it seemed that traffic(such as it is now) was flowing freely and easily through the circles.  Evidence on the concrete indicates that motorists are doing some "self straightening" as they turn around the bends.  We'll see how that plays out in summer.
     Has it affected things at the old intersection at Fanny Bridge?  That's a good, fair question.  It's hard to say.  Perhaps engineers who designed the plan have these answers, but they  are not obvious to casual bystanders on the bridge.
Next question
      Where's the fish sculpture?  Hmmmm.  Reports indicate there's a dispute between artist and city officials.  The sculpture was removed to facilitate construction without permission from the sculpture/owner.  He evidently wants the piece back where it belongs: where it was installed many years ago(45 years?).  The city wants a new location, more fitting to its grand dimensions and cultural identification as representative of the local environment- the Mackinaw trout of the lake.  The artist has offered the piece and rights to it for $8 million.. Hmmm.  A lot of bread for some metal fish.  But, it's art, really, and finally.
     With a little more effort, an agreement should be forthcoming.  The Mayor might have to assist in negotiations.

Hong Kong Protests Get Larger

      There is no rest among the Chinese inhabitants of Hong Kong.  They turned out in massive numbers over the weekend to protest Beijing's handling of their demonstrations criticizing the government's reaction to citizens' demands for change.  Estimates run to over 800,000 people who participated in Sunday's mostly peaceful protest.
      Thousands of Hong Kong residents have been arrested.  The police have used prodigious amounts of tear gas to subdue protesters.  But still, they come out again to send a message to Beijing:  we want our rights, now.  The rally was organized by  Civil Human Rights Front, which has had permit requests rejected many times over the last 3 months.
      Sunday's rally brought out people who filled the streets in a 2 mile long procession leading from mid day until after dark.  Families joined in the throng and mixed easily with younger participants.  Neither side appears willing to give ground and no end is in sight.  beijing hopes to outlast the protesters but it may have played into the hands of those who want to send a message that Hong Kong wants to remain autonomous for many more than the spoken 25 years.  we'll see, won't we?

World Anti-Doping Agency Banns Russya-Again

     So, here we go again.  Russya has been banned from participation in the 2020 Olympics and the 2022 World Cup competition.  Shocking?  No, of course not.  What did WADA ban, really?  They banned the flag of Russyan Federation and Russyan uniforms.  The athletes will still be able to perform as long as they are found to be clean.  Hmmmmm.  Who will supervise the check out of each athlete and who will analyze the blood samples?  Hmmmmm.   WADA has problems, in house.
      WADA is not a scientific body.  WADA is not composed of former athletes.   The board hires and funds labs through their proxies.  These labs have been found to be incompetent standins for "real" scientific laboratories.   Since when did this body become the leader of the anti-doping crusade?   The tainting of athletes' reputations is standard practice for this body.  Sure, it's easy to single out Russya, they are the poster boys of scientific shams and scams.  A team of girl scouts could identify blood dopers from Russya.   WADA uses Russyans as examples because Russyan are big, lumbering violators of all things doping.   Wow!  They've banned "The Russyans".  I'm scared they'll ban my country, little as it is.   I won't dope anymore.
      Ha,ha,ha,ha.  The Olympic Committee has to rethink this farce called WADA.  It hurts all athletes and all countries.   The I.O.C. has its own skeletons in the closet regarding abuse of its athletes over many years.  Now is the time to clean its filthy house, and fix the doping institutional inspections.  Honesty and credibility are the goals.  With all the money flowing across the table, it should be able to perform administration of the games at least as far as providing drug free competition.
Try harder WADA and I.O.C.

Russyan Foreign Minister at White House

     In a private meeting in the White House with Pres. Trump, Russyan Foreign Minister, the veteran Sergei Lavrov, sat with  the American leader and a few top advisors, including Sec. of State Michael Pompeo.  The goal was to find a way forward in Ukraine where a state of war has existed for more than two years between Russyan armed forces and their Ukrainian counterparts.  The US does not recognize the claims of Russya over the territory known as the DonBass in the eastern portion of the country and its industrial heartland .   The unusual meeting took place without the press to record the conversations and to report on any progress or agreements between the two principals.
     Mr. Lavrov's boss, Vladimir Putin, is in Europe meeting with Pres. Macron of France.  This meeting included the press(see photos.)

The Afghanistan Papers: Out Today

        Don't miss this opportunity to read about all the good things going on in Afghanistan, a country where the residents enjoy living in the Dark Ages.
        So, the Washington Post published what they call "The Afghanistan Papers", unpublished documents chronicling the US involvement in the war in Afghanistan that has continued without interruption since October 2001.  The papers are the result of a research effort by the Office of the Inspector General to examine our collective efforts to bring peace to the nation of Afghanistan, a turbulent state of the 3rd world as defined by legitimate observers.
       The basis of the research includes interviews with over 400 participants, including generals, statesmen/women, soldiers, Marines, A.I.D. personnel, Afghans, and various representatives from N.A.T.O. forces who work alongside US ground forces.   Most of those interviewed have had their names redacted from the reports/interviews to protect them from retaliation.  The Post has gone to Federal Court seeking the release of the identities of these individuals.   A decision should be handed down in months.
      Comparisons to the Pentagon Papers of the Vietnam War are easily made.  The Vietnam papers were a research project asked for by then Sec. of Defense Robert S. McNamara, who sought a definitive appraisal of efforts made in that country before he arrived in Washington, D.C. from Ford Motor Co. where he was CEO.   He had the result classified as Top Secret, limiting the exposure of the report  to but a few bureaucrats and White House policy makers.   Daniel Ellsberg was the Rand Corp. researcher who smuggled those documents that eventually found their way to the New York Times.   Despite Pres. Richard Nixon's attempts to prevent publication, he was over ruled by the Supreme Court.
     In this case, since the report was not originally classified, those attendant problems will not suppress this report.   From a cursory first read, it appears the situation in Afghanistan is not good, was never good, and never will be good despite the US spending almost a $trillion dollars of taxpayer money to do something to change the situation.   What did the taxpayer gain there?  Apparently, nothing, nothing at all.
     How long will taxpayers tolerate the lying by the leadership?  Not much longer.

Pensacola Naval Base Shooter

      Well, the US Navy base commander is trying to find some answers as to how a student pilot, a Saudi national, was able to bring a loaded pistol into a classroom and open fire on his fellow students.  Hmmmm.  I think the commander's career just took a turn for the worse.  He'll be forced to retire early, and will leave the service with a cloud over his career, as there should be.  This is again, a failure of leadership.   Just as in the lead up to 9/11, the signs were ignored before the event.  In the 9/11 case, the Saudi perps were being trained to pilot certain aircraft -in the United States.  They paid the bill and nobody gave it much thought, even the State Dept. and F.B.I. looked the other way because they were---SAUDIs, thought to be our friends.
       It's time to put Saudi Arabia on the Watch List of suspected countries that support terrorism, right up there with Iran, North Korea, Syria, Lebanon, Algeria, et cetera.
      Pity the poor family who sent their son or daughter to flight training in Pensacola where our Dept. of Defense thinks it's a good idea to open the classrooms to those from countries that support and export terrorists.  The pain is unimaginable for them.   The terrorist in Florida has been dispatched to his heaven, which we would call Hell.  Perhaps King Salman will offer some oil money to pay the families of victims.   But let us not forget: right now, all of Saudi Arabia is thinking about the IPO of AramCo, the state owned and run oil company  whose shares will be listed Wednesday, the 11th of Dec.
      So, how long do we continue to support a government that dispatches teams of murderers whose job is to extinguish the life of a journalist accused of criticizing the government?  Is anybody listening in Washington, or is the election cycle all-consuming these days?  Somebody needs to pay attention, but that's asking a bit much.

San Francisco 49ers Win in Big Easy

      It was touted as a big game for both teams: the New Orleans Saints v. the San Francisco 49ers.  Both teams were holding similar win/loss records:10-2se, and most losses came in the final seconds.  Quarterback Drew Brees of the Saints is approaching record territory for a player, approaching a record number of touchdown passes for his career.  The 49ers quarterback is having a career season, leading the best defense in the league and one of the best team offenses in the NFL.
     '9ers scored in the first few minutes, with a touchdown on the 9th play of the drive.   The Saints responded immediately with their own touchdown, 7-7.   Then, it was a struggle for both teams; back and forth, the teams played with bruising action that complemented strategies designed to upset plans for both teams.  Field goal kickers came into action to nudge up the scores to give or takeaway the lead.  49er kicker Gould had come back from the DL, and was not 100% ready.  Coach Kyle Shanahan knew Gould was his best option and his choice proved correct.   Gould's field goal with seconds remaining was the difference as the 49er's won, 48-46.  This score was the highest league score this season.
       Drew Brees and the Saints scored the go ahead touchdown with less than a minute to go as they marched down the field.  Brees connected on long passes including the final pass for the touchdown.  It appeared the San Francisco team was finished.  The Saints missed a 2-point conversion attempt that proved critical:  thw 49ers would only need a field goal to win.
      After moving the ball close to midfield, the 49ers were stuck, with 4th down and 2 yards to go for a first down.  Jimmy Garappolo called a pass play to tight end George Kittle who caught the ball on the run.  As he turned up field, the Saint defender made an attempt to bring him down, but in the process grabbed the face mask and everybody saw it an flags fluttered to the ground as Kittle added another 10 yards on his own.  After 2 more plays, the attempt was made from the 30yd line and was successful.  game over: 48-46.
Nice game, especially for the 49ers.

New York Times Releases Evidence that Russians Have Attacked Civilians

      Crews on the ground in Syria have gathered convincing evidence that Russyan attack aircraft directed their ordnance onto civilian targets in rebel held cities inside Syria in areas still controlled by rebels elements despite the Syrian governments efforts.   Using GPS data tracking devices, video taken on the scene with cell phones, the Times correspondents were able to intercept cockpit communications and map out the paths of the aircraft involved as they were attacking the civilians at different sites.  Victims of these attacks included women and children. 
      The lengthy articles included photographs, maps and diagrams to present to the world the awful evidence that underscores Mr. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin's campaign of influence in the Middle East.  This sad case od a world leader, leader of the largest country in the world,  clearly is unfit for this role and should be sanctioned by all civilized leaders around the world.   Maybe his Bro in Beijing will call him out.  Oh, no, won't happen.   Xi JP is too busy gassing up with his new toy:  the transSiberian gas line now bringing energy to China to fuel its teetering economy.
       Maybe Mr. Orban in HUngary will call out Mr. Putin.  No, won't happen.
     We'll wait.

Where's Rudy?

   Rudy is in Ukraine.   What is Rudy doing in Ukraine?  Ask the Ukrainians, they might know;  Rudy ain't talking.

Oh, Paree! Trouble in France Has French on Edge

      Mr. Macron decided to push his programs directed at  economic reform and adjustment.  As he turned out his programs of pension adjustments, labor unions and others took offense at this idea.  Mr. macron stated that managing 42 different pension plans was costly and inefficient and his new plan would alter the pensions into a more uniform program.  Hmmmmm.  What the government giveth the government better not take away or we'll go on strike.  And strike they have.
     A general strike is sweeping the nation effectively bringing the country to a standstill.  Transportation networks have halted all operations: trains and planes are not currently in operation.  Union workers have extended the stoppage until at least Tuesday, several days from now.  This occurs during the cold of early winter and the approaching holiday season.  Can this really be happening to the liberal/socialists of progressive France?  My, my.  What they need is a dose of recession, perhaps a dose of.......................................reality?
      Maybe Mr. Macron is just rounding up some publicity for his administration?  Maybe not. Time will tell.
Tahoma will be watching these unsettling developments.   What of Notre Dame?

Let the Hearings Begin

     The House Judiciary hearings begin today.   Academic experts on the issue of impeachment are the featured players called to answer questions concerning the panel's investigation into Pres. Trump's dealings with the president of Ukraine.   These professors add intellectual gravitas to the Democrats case for advancing the impeachment process.  Given that they can only speak for 10 minutes, and then answer pointed questions,  it remains whether this will be enough to go forward.
     The Trumpster is in the UK for a NATO conclave.  Last night, he and Melania attended a banquet hosted by Queen Elizabeth II, the reigning monarch.  This conference comes on the eve of a general election in the UK which in all likely hood will put BoJo into a more secure position as Prime Minister and set the stage for more Conservative Party consternation over the impending Brexit.
With the US President facing impeachment charges in the House, his appearance does not instill confidence in other world leaders.  Pres. Macron of France had to listen to Pres. Trump respond to his statements regarding NATO and its current status as a viable alliance.  Pres. Trump, who has made negative statements about NATO, countered Macron's negativity with supportive statements about the organization, leading to overall confusion as to his real position.  Yes, confusing to all.
     So, more rhetoric to endure. 

VOVA and XI: A Modern BROMANCE

former bromancers

     Well, it had to happen, didn't it?  The Bromance of the century:  V.V. Putin and Xi JP.  There they are, cavorting together while signing off on a "BIG" deal.  Even a deal the best "Deal Maker" would be jealous of.  But the BIg Deal maker is too busy right now trying to figure out the next move of Jerry Nadler and company in the House.
     Vova, as he is known to his peeps, has cemented a great deal with his populous southern neighbor, home to 1.4 billions of humans, counting those pesky Uyghurs and those peskier Tibetans.  That's a lot of mouths to feed, even for a tried and true blue Communist.  So, the Chinese government wants to ensure they have enough natural gas to power up the heaters and fuel the cookers so those billions won't get cold and hungry during the long Chinese winters, especially in Tibet(avg. elev. 12000'). Cold up there.  The Chinese need reliable sources of energy.  Russya has plenty-just ask them.  So, a large pipeline was constructed by both parties.  Oh, the financials?  No doubt a loan from Beijing at about 5 1/2 % would be about it.   It took awhile to put it all together and now they celebrate.

      Hand shakes, hugs, toasts(vodka provided by Kremlin).  Turn on the valves, and viola! Energy-clean burning methane or natural gas.  Not that ugly, terrible coal that is soooooooooopolluting.  have you seen the AQI for Chengdu?  Check it out.  Not very breathable these days.  Seems like it happens every winter.
     But, Russya needs the business, and is more than happy to help out his southern Bro.  Long live VOVA.

I like big pussy cats but not Pussy Riots

Homewood Equals Snow

       Well, it's still coming down.  Isn't that nice?  It will definitely be a white Christmas in the Basin and all around the Lake.  This bodes well for the season and all of us who depend on our guests to arrive on time and have sufficient snow to warrant outings for the associated sports.
      Heavy snow will fall all week making driving conditions hazardous for all.  Snow tires with studs?  You should have them-we know 4-wheel drive is not enough; they give a false sense of security while driving without really giving any more safety.  Spend the money-poor tires are not saving you money.
     How about that back up generator we've been talking about?  Too expensive?  Hmmmm.  How about all the food you have to throw out-again?   Does that make sense?  No.  So, hustle over to the Depot and take advantage of Black Friday or buy online and have it delivered to your door.   Check out the various brands and their ratings, you'll be surprised.